Tail Behavior of ACD Models and Consequences for Likelihood-Based Estimation

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Dokumenter

  • Fulltext

    Forlagets udgivne version, 155 KB, text/html

We establish new results for estimation and inference in financial durations models, where events are observed over a given time span, such as a trading day, or a week. For the classical autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by Engle and Russell (1998), we show that the large sample behavior of likelihood estimators is highly sensitive to the tail behavior of the financial durations. In particular, even under stationarity, asymptotic normality breaks down for tail indices smaller than one or, equivalently, when the clustering behavior of the observed events is such that the unconditional distribution of the durations has no finite mean. Instead, we find that estimators are mixed Gaussian and have non-standard rates of convergence. The results are based on exploiting the crucial fact that for duration data the number of observations within any given time span is random. Our results apply to general econometric models where the number of observed events is random.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer105613
TidsskriftJournal of Econometrics
Vol/bind238
Udgave nummer2
Antal sider14
ISSN0304-4076
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2024

ID: 369492054