AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Despite diabetes affects the myocardium, risk prediction models do not include myocardial function parameters. Myocardial performance index (MPI) reflects left ventricular function. The prognostic value of MPI has not been evaluated in large-scale diabetes populations.

METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated two prospective cohort studies: Thousand&1 (1093 individuals with T1D) and Thousand&2 (1030 individuals with T2D). Clinical data, including echocardiography, were collected at baseline. We collected follow-up data from national registries. We defined major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) as incident events of hospital admission for acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, stroke, or all-cause mortality. For included individuals (56% male, 54 ± 15 years, MPI 0.51 ± 0.1, 63% T1D), follow-up was 100% after median of 5.3 years (range: 4.8-6.3). MPI was associated with MACE (HR 1.2, 95%CI 1.0-1.3, P = 0.012, per 0.10-unit increase) and heart failure (HR 1.3, 95%CI 1.1-1.6, P = 0.005, per 0.10-unit increase) after adjusting for clinical and echocardiographic variables. MPI predicted MACE and heart failure better in T1D than T2D (P = 0.031 for interaction). MPI added discriminatory power to the Steno T1 Risk Engine, based on clinical characteristics, in predicting MACE [area under the curve (AUC) from 0.77 to 0.79, P = 0.030] and heart failure (AUC from 0.77 to 0.83, P = 0.009) in T1D.

CONCLUSION: MPI is independently associated with MACE and heart failure in T1D but not T2D and improves prediction in T1D. Echocardiographic assessment in T1D may enhance risk prediction.