Modeling the Effect of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Australian Beef Herds

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  • Jake Fountain
  • Marta Hernandez-Jover
  • Kirkeby, Carsten
  • Tariq Halasa
  • Jennifer Manyweathers
  • Yiheyis Maru
  • Victoria Brookes

Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an economically important disease in Australian beef farming. The disease typically results in low-level production losses that can be difficult to detect for several years. Simulation modeling can be used to support the decision to control BVDV; however, current BVDV simulation models do not adequately reflect the extensive farming environment of Australian beef production. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a disease simulation model to explore the impact of BVDV on beef cattle production in south-east Australia. A dynamic, individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time simulation model was created to simulate within-herd transmission of BVDV in a seasonal, self-replacing beef herd. We used the model to simulate the effect of herd size and BVDV introduction time on disease transmission and assessed the short- and long-term impact of BVDV on production outputs that influence the economic performance of beef farms. We found that BVDV can become established in a herd after a single PI introduction in 60% of cases, most frequently associated with the breeding period. The initial impact of BVDV will be more severe in smaller herds, although self-elimination is more likely in small herds than in larger herds, in which there is a 23% chance that the virus can persist for >15 years following a single incursion in a herd with 800 breeders. The number and weight of steers sold was reduced in the presence of BVDV and the results demonstrated that repeat incursions exacerbate long-term production losses, even when annual losses appear marginal. This model reflects the short- and long-term production losses attributed to BVDV in beef herds in southeast Australia and provides a foundation from which the influence and economic utility of BVDV prevention in Australian beef herds can be assessed.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
Artikelnummer795575
TidsskriftFrontiers in Veterinary Science
Vol/bind8
ISSN2297-1769
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2021

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
This study is part of a PhD project that was supported by an Australian Research Training Program (ARTP) scholarship, with a top-up from the Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation and Meat and Livestock Australia Ltd. There was no involvement of the funding sources in the study design, collection or analysis of data, interpretation of results, or the decision to submit the article for publication.

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2021 Fountain, Hernandez-Jover, Kirkeby, Halasa, Manyweathers, Maru and Brookes.

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