Extinction, coextinction and colonization dynamics in plant–hummingbird networks under climate change

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Climate-driven range shifts may cause local extinctions, while the accompanying loss of biotic interactions may trigger secondary coextinctions. At the same time, climate change may facilitate colonizations from regional source pools, balancing out local species loss. At present, how these extinction–coextinction–colonization dynamics affect biological communities under climate change is poorly understood. Using 84 communities of interacting plants and hummingbirds, we simulated patterns in climate-driven extinctions, coextinctions and colonizations under future climate change scenarios. Our simulations showed clear geographic discrepancies in the communities’ vulnerability to climate change. Andean communities were the least affected by future climate change, as they experienced few climate-driven extinctions and coextinctions while having the highest colonization potential. In North America and lowland South America, communities had many climate-driven extinctions and few colonization events. Meanwhile, the pattern of coextinction was highly dependent on the configuration of networks formed by interacting hummingbirds and plants. Notably, North American communities experienced proportionally fewer coextinctions than other regions because climate-driven extinctions here primarily affected species with peripheral network roles. Moreover, coextinctions generally decreased in communities where species have few overlapping interactions, that is, communities with more complementary specialized and modular networks. Together, these results highlight that we should not expect colonizations to adequately balance out local extinctions in the most vulnerable ecoregions.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftNature Ecology & Evolution
Vol/bind6
Udgave nummer6
Sider (fra-til)720-729
ISSN2397-334X
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2022

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
J.S. and C.R acknowledge the support of the VILLUM FONDEN for the Center for Global Mountain Biodiversity (grant no. 25925). A.M.M.G., C.R. and B.D. thank the Danish National Research Foundation for its support of the Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate (grant no. DNRF96). P.K.M. thanks the support from Fapesp—The São Paulo Research Foundation (grant no. 2015/21457-4) and Fapemig—Minas Gerais Research Foundation (grant no. RED-00253-16). A.M.M.G. was supported through a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowship (H2020-MSCA-IF-2015-704409). J.B.’s work is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant no. 310030_197201).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

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