BACKGROUND: First-line treatment for patients with disseminated germ cell cancer (GCC) is bleomycin, etoposide, and cisplatin (BEP). A prognostic classification of patients receiving chemotherapy was published by the International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) in 1997, but only a small proportion of the patients received BEP.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate survival probabilities after BEP, evaluate the IGCCCG prognostic classification, and propose new prognostic factors for outcome.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Of a Danish population-based cohort of GCC patients (1984-2007), 1889 received first-line BEP, with median follow-up of 15 yr. Covariates evaluated as prognostic factors were age, year of treatment, primary site, non-pulmonary visceral metastases, pulmonary metastases, and tumor markers.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Outcomes measured were 5-yr progression-free survival (PFS), 5-yr disease-specific survival (DSS), and 5-yr overall survival (OS) as calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The 5-yr PFS, DSS, and OS were 87%, 95%, and 93%, respectively, for patients with seminomatous GCC (SGCC) and good prognosis. For nonseminomatous GCC (NSGCC) with good, intermediate, and poor prognosis, the 5-yr probabilities were 90%, 76%, and 55% for PFS; 97%, 87%, and 66% for DSS; and 95%, 85%, and 64% for OS, respectively. For SGCC patients, new adverse prognostic factors not included in the IGCCCG classification were higher age and lactate dehydrogenase ≥1.5 times the upper limit of normal. For NSGCC patients, higher age and pulmonary metastases were additional adverse prognostic factors. Treatment in earlier years was associated with higher mortality. Limitations include the small number of patients in the prognostic groups, and the inability to adjust for performance status and comorbidity.

CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals improved survival for disseminated GCC throughout the study period. We propose new prognostic factors for outcome for validation in larger cohorts of patients.

PATIENT SUMMARY: In this study of testicular cancer patients, we evaluated prognostic factors for outcome and calculated survival after standard chemotherapy. We find that survival has improved over the years and we propose new prognostic factors for outcome for validation in larger patient cohorts.