TY - JOUR

T1 - The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean

AU - Reusch, Thorsten B.H.

AU - Dierking, Jan

AU - Andersson, Helen C.

AU - Bonsdorff, Erik

AU - Carstensen, Jacob

AU - Casini, Michele

AU - Czajkowski, Mikolaj

AU - Hasler, Berit

AU - Hinsby, Klaus

AU - Hyytiäinen, Kari

AU - Johannesson, Kerstin

AU - Jomaa, Seifeddine

AU - Jormalainen, Veijo

AU - Kuosa, Harri

AU - Kurland, Sara

AU - Laikre, Linda

AU - MacKenzie, Brian R.

AU - Margonski, Piotr

AU - Melzner, Frank

AU - Oesterwind, Daniel

AU - Ojaveer, Henn

AU - Refsgaard, Jens Christian

AU - Sandström, Annica

AU - Schwarz, Gerald

AU - Tonderski, Karin

AU - Winder, Monika

AU - Zandersen, Marianne

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2018 The Authors.

PY - 2018/5/9

Y1 - 2018/5/9

N2 - Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of crossborder environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to newmanagement challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

AB - Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of crossborder environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to newmanagement challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.aar8195

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.aar8195

M3 - Review

C2 - 29750199

AN - SCOPUS:85047133474

VL - 4

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

SN - 2375-2548

IS - 5

M1 - eaar8195

ER -