Targeted estimation of state occupation probabilities for the non-Markov illness-death model
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Targeted estimation of state occupation probabilities for the non-Markov illness-death model. / Munch, Anders; Breum, Marie Skov; Martinussen, Torben; Gerds, Thomas A. A.
I: Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Bind 50, Nr. 3, 2023, s. 1532-1551.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Targeted estimation of state occupation probabilities for the non-Markov illness-death model
AU - Munch, Anders
AU - Breum, Marie Skov
AU - Martinussen, Torben
AU - Gerds, Thomas A. A.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - We use semi-parametric efficiency theory to derive a class of estimators for the state occupation probabilities of the continuous-time irreversible illness-death model. We consider both the setting with and without additional baseline information available, where we impose no specific functional form on the intensity functions of the model. We show that any estimator in the class is asymptotically linear under suitable assumptions about the estimators of the intensity functions. In particular, the assumptions are weak enough to allow the use of data-adaptive methods, which is important for making the identifying assumption of coarsening at random plausible in realistic settings. We suggest a flexible method for estimating the transition intensity functions of the illness-death model based on penalized Poisson regression. We apply this method to estimate the nuisance parameters of an illness-death model in a simulation study and a real-world application.
AB - We use semi-parametric efficiency theory to derive a class of estimators for the state occupation probabilities of the continuous-time irreversible illness-death model. We consider both the setting with and without additional baseline information available, where we impose no specific functional form on the intensity functions of the model. We show that any estimator in the class is asymptotically linear under suitable assumptions about the estimators of the intensity functions. In particular, the assumptions are weak enough to allow the use of data-adaptive methods, which is important for making the identifying assumption of coarsening at random plausible in realistic settings. We suggest a flexible method for estimating the transition intensity functions of the illness-death model based on penalized Poisson regression. We apply this method to estimate the nuisance parameters of an illness-death model in a simulation study and a real-world application.
KW - data-adaptive methods
KW - efficient estimation
KW - illness-death model
KW - state-dependent censoring
KW - targeted learning
KW - INTEGRATED TRANSITION HAZARDS
KW - NONPARAMETRIC-ESTIMATION
U2 - 10.1111/sjos.12644
DO - 10.1111/sjos.12644
M3 - Journal article
VL - 50
SP - 1532
EP - 1551
JO - Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
JF - Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
SN - 0303-6898
IS - 3
ER -
ID: 346199151