Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Dokumenter

  • Nils Haug
  • Lukas Geyrhofer
  • Alessandro Londei
  • Elma Dervic
  • Amélie Desvars-Larrive
  • Vittorio Loreto
  • Conrady, Beate
  • Stefan Thurner
  • Peter Klimek

Assessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific ‘what-if’ scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftNature Human Behaviour
Vol/bind4
Udgave nummer12
Sider (fra-til)1303-1312
Antal sider10
ISSN2397-3374
DOI
StatusUdgivet - dec. 2020
Eksternt udgivetJa

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