Aims
Adiponectin may play an important protective role in heart failure and associated cardiovascular diseases. We hypothesized that plasma adiponectin is associated observationally and causally, genetically with risk of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, aortic valve stenosis, and myocardial infarction.

Methods and results
In the Copenhagen General Population Study, we examined 30 045 individuals with plasma adiponectin measurements observationally and 96 903 individuals genetically in one-sample Mendelian randomization analyses using five genetic variants explaining 3% of the variation in plasma adiponectin. In the HERMES, UK Biobank, The Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), deCODE, the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), DiscovEHR, and the AFGen consortia, we performed two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses in up to 1 030 836 individuals using 12 genetic variants explaining 14% of the variation in plasma adiponectin.

In observational analyses modelled linearly, a 1 unit log-transformed higher plasma adiponectin was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.51 (95% confidence interval: 1.37–1.66) for heart failure, 1.63 (1.50–1.78) for atrial fibrillation, 1.21 (1.03–1.41) for aortic valve stenosis, and 1.03 (0.93–1.14) for myocardial infarction; levels above the median were also associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, and non-linear U-shaped associations were more apparent for heart failure, aortic valve stenosis, and myocardial infarction in less-adjusted models. Corresponding genetic, causal risk ratios were 0.92 (0.65–1.29), 0.87 (0.68–1.12), 1.55 (0.87–2.76), and 0.93 (0.67–1.30) in one-sample Mendelian randomization analyses, and no significant associations were seen for non-linear one-sample Mendelian randomization analyses; corresponding causal risk ratios were 0.99 (0.89–1.09), 1.00 (0.92–1.08), 1.01 (0.79–1.28), and 0.99 (0.86–1.13) in two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses, respectively.

Conclusion
Observationally, elevated plasma adiponectin was associated with an increased risk of heart failure, atrial fibrillation, aortic valve stenosis, and myocardial infarction. However, genetic evidence did not support causality for these associations.