Modeling the Effect of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Australian Beef Herds
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Modeling the Effect of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Australian Beef Herds. / Fountain, Jake; Hernandez-Jover, Marta; Kirkeby, Carsten; Halasa, Tariq; Manyweathers, Jennifer; Maru, Yiheyis; Brookes, Victoria.
I: Frontiers in Veterinary Science, Bind 8, 795575, 2021.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling the Effect of Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus in Australian Beef Herds
AU - Fountain, Jake
AU - Hernandez-Jover, Marta
AU - Kirkeby, Carsten
AU - Halasa, Tariq
AU - Manyweathers, Jennifer
AU - Maru, Yiheyis
AU - Brookes, Victoria
N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2021 Fountain, Hernandez-Jover, Kirkeby, Halasa, Manyweathers, Maru and Brookes.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an economically important disease in Australian beef farming. The disease typically results in low-level production losses that can be difficult to detect for several years. Simulation modeling can be used to support the decision to control BVDV; however, current BVDV simulation models do not adequately reflect the extensive farming environment of Australian beef production. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a disease simulation model to explore the impact of BVDV on beef cattle production in south-east Australia. A dynamic, individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time simulation model was created to simulate within-herd transmission of BVDV in a seasonal, self-replacing beef herd. We used the model to simulate the effect of herd size and BVDV introduction time on disease transmission and assessed the short- and long-term impact of BVDV on production outputs that influence the economic performance of beef farms. We found that BVDV can become established in a herd after a single PI introduction in 60% of cases, most frequently associated with the breeding period. The initial impact of BVDV will be more severe in smaller herds, although self-elimination is more likely in small herds than in larger herds, in which there is a 23% chance that the virus can persist for >15 years following a single incursion in a herd with 800 breeders. The number and weight of steers sold was reduced in the presence of BVDV and the results demonstrated that repeat incursions exacerbate long-term production losses, even when annual losses appear marginal. This model reflects the short- and long-term production losses attributed to BVDV in beef herds in southeast Australia and provides a foundation from which the influence and economic utility of BVDV prevention in Australian beef herds can be assessed.
AB - Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) is an economically important disease in Australian beef farming. The disease typically results in low-level production losses that can be difficult to detect for several years. Simulation modeling can be used to support the decision to control BVDV; however, current BVDV simulation models do not adequately reflect the extensive farming environment of Australian beef production. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a disease simulation model to explore the impact of BVDV on beef cattle production in south-east Australia. A dynamic, individual-based, stochastic, discrete-time simulation model was created to simulate within-herd transmission of BVDV in a seasonal, self-replacing beef herd. We used the model to simulate the effect of herd size and BVDV introduction time on disease transmission and assessed the short- and long-term impact of BVDV on production outputs that influence the economic performance of beef farms. We found that BVDV can become established in a herd after a single PI introduction in 60% of cases, most frequently associated with the breeding period. The initial impact of BVDV will be more severe in smaller herds, although self-elimination is more likely in small herds than in larger herds, in which there is a 23% chance that the virus can persist for >15 years following a single incursion in a herd with 800 breeders. The number and weight of steers sold was reduced in the presence of BVDV and the results demonstrated that repeat incursions exacerbate long-term production losses, even when annual losses appear marginal. This model reflects the short- and long-term production losses attributed to BVDV in beef herds in southeast Australia and provides a foundation from which the influence and economic utility of BVDV prevention in Australian beef herds can be assessed.
KW - Australia
KW - beef
KW - bovine
KW - BVDV
KW - model
KW - production
KW - simulation
KW - viral
U2 - 10.3389/fvets.2021.795575
DO - 10.3389/fvets.2021.795575
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 34970621
AN - SCOPUS:85121985034
VL - 8
JO - Frontiers in Veterinary Science
JF - Frontiers in Veterinary Science
SN - 2297-1769
M1 - 795575
ER -
ID: 289393570