Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’.

In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen and the impact of the current regional planning framework, the “Fingerplan 2007”. This plan is the first binding version of the original “Fingerplan” from 1947. It sets overall guidelines for zoning in the area.

For the modelling exercise we apply the Metronamica model from the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), which has a lot of parallels with the MOLAND approach, known from various research applications. As we are new to land use modelling, this exercise should also illustrate the possibilities of non-modelling experts to elaborate a practical and useful outcome within a relatively short period of time and only little resources. This will be discussed and evaluated during the project with a few key stakeholders from the responsible planning authority.

Research questions:
- How would urban development in Copenhagen go without the Fingerplan 2007 and is the Fingerplan effective?
- Does a small and quick modelling exercise make sense, or is more in-depth research indispensible? What are the technical and conceptual limits of such an approach?
- How can the results be used (by planners)?