TY - JOUR

T1 - The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change

T2 - health at the mercy of fossil fuels

AU - Romanello, Marina

AU - Di Napoli, Claudia

AU - Drummond, Paul

AU - Green, Carole

AU - Kennard, Harry

AU - Lampard, Pete

AU - Scamman, Daniel

AU - Arnell, Nigel

AU - Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja

AU - Ford, Lea Berrang

AU - Belesova, Kristine

AU - Bowen, Kathryn

AU - Cai, Wenjia

AU - Callaghan, Max

AU - Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid

AU - Chambers, Jonathan

AU - van Daalen, Kim R.

AU - Dalin, Carole

AU - Dasandi, Niheer

AU - Dasgupta, Shouro

AU - Davies, Michael

AU - Dominguez-Salas, Paula

AU - Dubrow, Robert

AU - Ebi, Kristie L.

AU - Eckelman, Matthew

AU - Ekins, Paul

AU - Escobar, Luis E.

AU - Georgeson, Lucien

AU - Graham, Hilary

AU - Gunther, Samuel H.

AU - Hamilton, Ian

AU - Hang, Yun

AU - Hänninen, Risto

AU - Hartinger, Stella

AU - He, Kehan

AU - Hess, Jeremy J.

AU - Hsu, Shih Che

AU - Jankin, Slava

AU - Jamart, Louis

AU - Jay, Ollie

AU - Kelman, Ilan

AU - Kiesewetter, Gregor

AU - Kinney, Patrick

AU - Kjellstrom, Tord

AU - Kniveton, Dominic

AU - Lee, Jason K.W.

AU - Lemke, Bruno

AU - Liu, Yang

AU - Liu, Zhao

AU - Lott, Melissa

AU - Batista, Martin Lotto

AU - Lowe, Rachel

AU - MacGuire, Frances

AU - Sewe, Maquins Odhiambo

AU - Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

AU - Maslin, Mark

AU - McAllister, Lucy

AU - McGushin, Alice

AU - McMichael, Celia

AU - Mi, Zhifu

AU - Milner, James

AU - Minor, Kelton

AU - Minx, Jan C.

AU - Mohajeri, Nahid

AU - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar

AU - Morrissey, Karyn

AU - Munzert, Simon

AU - Murray, Kris A.

AU - Neville, Tara

AU - Nilsson, Maria

AU - Obradovich, Nick

AU - O'Hare, Megan B.

AU - Oreszczyn, Tadj

AU - Otto, Matthias

AU - Owfi, Fereidoon

AU - Pearman, Olivia

AU - Rabbaniha, Mahnaz

AU - Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.

AU - Rocklöv, Joacim

AU - Salas, Renee N.

AU - Semenza, Jan C.

AU - Sherman, Jodi D.

AU - Shi, Liuhua

AU - Shumake-Guillemot, Joy

AU - Silbert, Grant

AU - Sofiev, Mikhail

AU - Springmann, Marco

AU - Stowell, Jennifer

AU - Tabatabaei, Meisam

AU - Taylor, Jonathon

AU - Triñanes, Joaquin

AU - Wagner, Fabian

AU - Wilkinson, Paul

AU - Winning, Matthew

AU - Yglesias-González, Marisol

AU - Zhang, Shihui

AU - Gong, Peng

AU - Montgomery, Hugh

AU - Costello, Anthony

N1 - Funding Information: It is with great sadness that we acknowledge the passing of Paul Wilkinson who was instrumental to the formation of The Lancet Countdown and its ongoing scientific and strategic direction. Paul, a world-renowned environmental epidemiologist whose inter-disciplinary work was at the forefront of research on climate change, air pollution, and the built environment and health, was a valuable contributing author to Working Group 3: mitigation actions and health co-benefits. We thank the Wellcome Trust and, in particular, Madeleine Thomson (Wellcome Trust, London, UK), for financial and strategic support, without which this research collaboration would not be possible. The Lancet Countdown's work was supported by an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z). Twelve of the authors (MRo, AM, KRvD, MO, FM, CDN, CG, HK, PD, DS, PL, and MY) were compensated for their time while drafting and developing the Lancet Countdown's report. While carrying out its work, the Lancet Countdown received invaluable technical advice and input from several individuals, including Heather Adair-Rohani, Carlos Corvalan, Christian Schweizer, and Elena Villalobos Prats (WHO, Geneva, Switzerland); Jessica Lewis (USAID, Washington, DC, USA); Chiara Delmastro (International Energy Agency, Paris, France); Peter James and Catherine Ngo (Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA); Ran Zhang (Hertie School, Berlin, Germany); Kaixin Huang (Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA); Jamie Ponmattam (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA); Dhruv Gupta (Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust); Nick Hughes, Solano Rodriguez, and Dan Welsby (University College London, London, UK); Troy Cross (University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia); Matthew Shupler and Daniel Pope (University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK); Marcia Pescador Jimenez (Boston University, Boston, MA, USA); Luciana Blanco (the Lancet Countdown South America); and Vesna Milanovic, Hannah Whitcombe, and Maria Walawender (the Lancet Countdown). Funding Information: It is with great sadness that we acknowledge the passing of Paul Wilkinson who was instrumental to the formation of The Lancet Countdown and its ongoing scientific and strategic direction. Paul, a world-renowned environmental epidemiologist whose inter-disciplinary work was at the forefront of research on climate change, air pollution, and the built environment and health, was a valuable contributing author to Working Group 3: mitigation actions and health co-benefits. We thank the Wellcome Trust and, in particular, Madeleine Thomson (Wellcome Trust, London, UK), for financial and strategic support, without which this research collaboration would not be possible. The Lancet Countdown's work was supported by an unrestricted grant from the Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z). Twelve of the authors (MRo, AM, KRvD, MO, FM, CDN, CG, HK, PD, DS, PL, and MY) were compensated for their time while drafting and developing the Lancet Countdown's report. While carrying out its work, the Lancet Countdown received invaluable technical advice and input from several individuals, including Heather Adair-Rohani, Carlos Corvalan, Christian Schweizer, and Elena Villalobos Prats (WHO, Geneva, Switzerland); Jessica Lewis (USAID, Washington, DC, USA); Chiara Delmastro (International Energy Agency, Paris, France); Peter James and Catherine Ngo (Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA); Ran Zhang (Hertie School, Berlin, Germany); Kaixin Huang (Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA); Jamie Ponmattam (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA); Dhruv Gupta (Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust); Nick Hughes, Solano Rodriguez, and Dan Welsby (University College London, London, UK); Troy Cross (University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia); Matthew Shupler and Daniel Pope (University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK); Marcia Pescador Jimenez (Boston University, Boston, MA, USA); Luciana Blanco (the Lancet Countdown South America); and Vesna Milanovic, Hannah Whitcombe, and Maria Walawender (the Lancet Countdown). Editorial note: The Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world's populations to concurrent health threats.During 2021 and 2022, extreme weather events caused devastation across every continent, adding further pressure to health services already grappling with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Floods in Australia, Brazil, China, western Europe, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Africa, and South Sudan caused thousands of deaths, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and caused billions of dollars in economic losses. Wildfires caused devastation in Canada, the USA, Greece, Algeria, Italy, Spain, and Türkiye, and record temperatures were recorded in many countries, including Australia, Canada, India, Italy, Oman, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the UK. With advancements in the science of detection and attribution studies, the influence of climate change over many events has now been quantified.Because of the rapidly increasing temperatures, vulnerable populations (adults older than 65 years, and children younger than one year of age) were exposed to 3·7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than annually in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2), and heat-related deaths increased by 68% between 2000–04 and 2017–21 (indicator 1.1.5), a death toll that was significantly exacerbated by the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic.Simultaneously, the changing climate is affecting the spread of infectious diseases, putting populations at higher risk of emerging diseases and co-epidemics. Coastal waters are becoming more suitable for the transmission of Vibrio pathogens; the number of months suitable for malaria transmission increased by 31·3% in the highland areas of the Americas and 13·8% in the highland areas of Africa from 1951–60 to 2012–21, and the likelihood of dengue transmission rose by 12% in the same period (indicator 1.3.1). The coexistence of dengue outbreaks with the COVID-19 pandemic led to aggravated pressure on health systems, misdiagnosis, and difficulties in management of both diseases in many regions of South America, Asia, and Africa.The economic losses associated with climate change impacts are also increasing pressure on families and economies already challenged with the synergistic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the international cost-of-living and energy crises, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants that good health depends on. Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021 (indicator 1.1.4), with potential income losses equivalent to 0·72% of the global economic output, increasing to 5·6% of the GDP in low Human Development Index (HDI) countries, where workers are most vulnerable to the effects of financial fluctuations (indicator 4.1.3). Meanwhile, extreme weather events caused damage worth US$253 billion in 2021, particularly burdening people in low HDI countries in which almost none of the losses were insured (indicator 4.1.1).Through multiple and interconnected pathways, every dimension of food security is being affected by climate change, aggravating the impacts of other coexisting crises. The higher temperatures threaten crop yields directly, with the growth seasons of maize on average 9 days shorter in 2020, and the growth seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat 6 days shorter than for 1981–2010 globally (indicator 1.4). The threat to crop yields adds to the rising impact of extreme weather on supply chains, socioeconomic pressures, and the risk of infectious disease transmission, undermining food availability, access, stability, and utilisation. New analysis suggests that extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than annually in 1981–2010, in 103 countries analysed (indicator 1.4). The increasingly extreme weather worsens the stability of global food systems, acting in synergy with other concurrent crises to reverse progress towards hunger eradication. Indeed, the prevalence of undernourishment increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and up to 161 million more people faced hunger during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than in 2019. This situation is now worsened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the energy and cost-of-living crises, with impacts on international agricultural production and supply chains threatening to result in 13 million additional people facing undernutrition in 2022.

AB - The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown is published as the world confronts profound and concurrent systemic shocks. Countries and health systems continue to contend with the health, social, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a persistent fossil fuel overdependence has pushed the world into global energy and cost-of-living crises. As these crises unfold, climate change escalates unabated. Its worsening impacts are increasingly affecting the foundations of human health and wellbeing, exacerbating the vulnerability of the world's populations to concurrent health threats.During 2021 and 2022, extreme weather events caused devastation across every continent, adding further pressure to health services already grappling with the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Floods in Australia, Brazil, China, western Europe, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Africa, and South Sudan caused thousands of deaths, displaced hundreds of thousands of people, and caused billions of dollars in economic losses. Wildfires caused devastation in Canada, the USA, Greece, Algeria, Italy, Spain, and Türkiye, and record temperatures were recorded in many countries, including Australia, Canada, India, Italy, Oman, Türkiye, Pakistan, and the UK. With advancements in the science of detection and attribution studies, the influence of climate change over many events has now been quantified.Because of the rapidly increasing temperatures, vulnerable populations (adults older than 65 years, and children younger than one year of age) were exposed to 3·7 billion more heatwave days in 2021 than annually in 1986–2005 (indicator 1.1.2), and heat-related deaths increased by 68% between 2000–04 and 2017–21 (indicator 1.1.5), a death toll that was significantly exacerbated by the confluence of the COVID-19 pandemic.Simultaneously, the changing climate is affecting the spread of infectious diseases, putting populations at higher risk of emerging diseases and co-epidemics. Coastal waters are becoming more suitable for the transmission of Vibrio pathogens; the number of months suitable for malaria transmission increased by 31·3% in the highland areas of the Americas and 13·8% in the highland areas of Africa from 1951–60 to 2012–21, and the likelihood of dengue transmission rose by 12% in the same period (indicator 1.3.1). The coexistence of dengue outbreaks with the COVID-19 pandemic led to aggravated pressure on health systems, misdiagnosis, and difficulties in management of both diseases in many regions of South America, Asia, and Africa.The economic losses associated with climate change impacts are also increasing pressure on families and economies already challenged with the synergistic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the international cost-of-living and energy crises, further undermining the socioeconomic determinants that good health depends on. Heat exposure led to 470 billion potential labour hours lost globally in 2021 (indicator 1.1.4), with potential income losses equivalent to 0·72% of the global economic output, increasing to 5·6% of the GDP in low Human Development Index (HDI) countries, where workers are most vulnerable to the effects of financial fluctuations (indicator 4.1.3). Meanwhile, extreme weather events caused damage worth US$253 billion in 2021, particularly burdening people in low HDI countries in which almost none of the losses were insured (indicator 4.1.1).Through multiple and interconnected pathways, every dimension of food security is being affected by climate change, aggravating the impacts of other coexisting crises. The higher temperatures threaten crop yields directly, with the growth seasons of maize on average 9 days shorter in 2020, and the growth seasons of winter wheat and spring wheat 6 days shorter than for 1981–2010 globally (indicator 1.4). The threat to crop yields adds to the rising impact of extreme weather on supply chains, socioeconomic pressures, and the risk of infectious disease transmission, undermining food availability, access, stability, and utilisation. New analysis suggests that extreme heat was associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity in 2020 than annually in 1981–2010, in 103 countries analysed (indicator 1.4). The increasingly extreme weather worsens the stability of global food systems, acting in synergy with other concurrent crises to reverse progress towards hunger eradication. Indeed, the prevalence of undernourishment increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, and up to 161 million more people faced hunger during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 than in 2019. This situation is now worsened by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the energy and cost-of-living crises, with impacts on international agricultural production and supply chains threatening to result in 13 million additional people facing undernutrition in 2022.

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)01540-9

M3 - Review

C2 - 36306815

AN - SCOPUS:85141122441

VL - 400

SP - 1619

EP - 1654

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 10363

ER -