Prognostic modelling of number of patients with retinal vein occlusion in anti-VEGF therapy
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Prognostic modelling of number of patients with retinal vein occlusion in anti-VEGF therapy. / Subhi, Yousif; Potapenko, Ivan; Hajari, Javad N.; la Cour, Morten.
In: Acta Ophthalmologica, Vol. 102, No. 3, 2024, p. 318-325.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic modelling of number of patients with retinal vein occlusion in anti-VEGF therapy
AU - Subhi, Yousif
AU - Potapenko, Ivan
AU - Hajari, Javad N.
AU - la Cour, Morten
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Purpose: The purpose of the study was to evaluate temporal changes in age- and sex-stratified incidence rates of retinal vein occlusion (RVO) commenced in anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) treatment, proportion of patients remaining in active anti-VEGF therapy over time, and to develop a forecasting model for future number of patients with RVO in active anti-VEGF therapy. Methods: This was a registry-based study of patients with RVO in the Capital Region of Denmark from commenced in anti-VEGF therapy from 1 January 2007 to 30 June 2022. Census data were extracted from Statistics Denmark for incidence rate analyses and forecasting data of future demographics. Results: A total of 2641 patients with RVO were commenced in anti-VEGF therapy, of which 2192 were later discontinued. Number of patients rose dramatically during the first years of introduction of anti-VEGF therapy, after which growth was slower and followed the demographic changes. Trend analyses revealed that the COVID-19 epidemics impacted with fewer referrals and more aggressive discontinuation practices. Annual incidence of RVO in 2012–2021 was 13.1 per 100 000 (95% CI: 12.6–13.6 per 100 000). Proportion of patients with RVO remaining in active anti-VEGF treatment was 55.0%, 40.1%, 30.8% and 12.1% after Years 1, 2, 3 and 8, respectively. According to our forecast, number of patients with RVO in active anti-VEGF therapy will grow slowly but continually at least until year 2035. Conclusion: Our study reports incidence rates and provides prognostic modelling of number of patients with RVO in anti-VEGF therapy.
AB - Purpose: The purpose of the study was to evaluate temporal changes in age- and sex-stratified incidence rates of retinal vein occlusion (RVO) commenced in anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) treatment, proportion of patients remaining in active anti-VEGF therapy over time, and to develop a forecasting model for future number of patients with RVO in active anti-VEGF therapy. Methods: This was a registry-based study of patients with RVO in the Capital Region of Denmark from commenced in anti-VEGF therapy from 1 January 2007 to 30 June 2022. Census data were extracted from Statistics Denmark for incidence rate analyses and forecasting data of future demographics. Results: A total of 2641 patients with RVO were commenced in anti-VEGF therapy, of which 2192 were later discontinued. Number of patients rose dramatically during the first years of introduction of anti-VEGF therapy, after which growth was slower and followed the demographic changes. Trend analyses revealed that the COVID-19 epidemics impacted with fewer referrals and more aggressive discontinuation practices. Annual incidence of RVO in 2012–2021 was 13.1 per 100 000 (95% CI: 12.6–13.6 per 100 000). Proportion of patients with RVO remaining in active anti-VEGF treatment was 55.0%, 40.1%, 30.8% and 12.1% after Years 1, 2, 3 and 8, respectively. According to our forecast, number of patients with RVO in active anti-VEGF therapy will grow slowly but continually at least until year 2035. Conclusion: Our study reports incidence rates and provides prognostic modelling of number of patients with RVO in anti-VEGF therapy.
KW - anti-VEGF
KW - Denmark
KW - forecasting
KW - prognosis
KW - retinal vein occlusion
U2 - 10.1111/aos.15721
DO - 10.1111/aos.15721
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 37278225
AN - SCOPUS:85161360271
VL - 102
SP - 318
EP - 325
JO - Acta Ophthalmologica
JF - Acta Ophthalmologica
SN - 1755-375X
IS - 3
ER -
ID: 387435240