Background: Sleeve lobectomy is a challenging procedure with a high risk of postoperative complications. To facilitate surgical decision-making and optimize perioperative treatment, we developed risk stratification models to quantify the probability of postoperative complications after sleeve lobectomy. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical features of 691 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who underwent sleeve lobectomy between July 2016 and December 2019. Logistic regression models were trained and validated in the cohort to predict overall complications, major complications, and specific minor complications. The impact of specific complications in prognostic stratification was explored via the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Of 691 included patients, 232 (33.5%) developed complications, including 35 (5.1%) and 197 (28.5%) patients with major and minor complications, respectively. The models showed robust discrimination, yielding an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.853 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.705–0.885] for predicting overall postoperative complication risk and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.727–0.762) specifically for major complication risks. Models predicting minor complications also achieved good performance, with AUCs ranging from 0.78 to 0.89. Survival analyses revealed a significant association between postoperative complications and poor prognosis. Conclusions: Risk stratification models could accurately predict the probability and severity of complications in NSCLC patients following sleeve lobectomy, which may inform clinical decision-making for future patients.