Development of a type 2 diabetes risk model from a panel of serum biomarkers from the Inter99 cohort
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Development of a type 2 diabetes risk model from a panel of serum biomarkers from the Inter99 cohort. / Kolberg, Janice A; Jørgensen, Torben; Gerwien, Robert W; Hamren, Sarah; McKenna, Michael P; Moler, Edward; Rowe, Michael W; Urdea, Mickey S; Xu, Xiaomei M; Hansen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut.
In: Diabetes Care, Vol. 32, No. 7, 2009, p. 1207-12.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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T1 - Development of a type 2 diabetes risk model from a panel of serum biomarkers from the Inter99 cohort
AU - Kolberg, Janice A
AU - Jørgensen, Torben
AU - Gerwien, Robert W
AU - Hamren, Sarah
AU - McKenna, Michael P
AU - Moler, Edward
AU - Rowe, Michael W
AU - Urdea, Mickey S
AU - Xu, Xiaomei M
AU - Hansen, Torben
AU - Pedersen, Oluf
AU - Borch-Johnsen, Knut
PY - 2009
Y1 - 2009
N2 - OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop a model for assessing the 5-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes from a panel of 64 circulating candidate biomarkers. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Subjects were selected from the Inter99 cohort, a longitudinal population-based study of approximately 6,600 Danes in a nested case-control design with the primary outcome of 5-year conversion to type 2 diabetes. Nondiabetic subjects, aged >or=39 years, with BMI >or=25 kg/m(2) at baseline were selected. Baseline fasting serum samples from 160 individuals who developed type 2 diabetes and from 472 who did not were tested. An ultrasensitive immunoassay was used to measure of 58 candidate biomarkers in multiple diabetes-associated pathways, along with six routine clinical variables. Statistical learning methods and permutation testing were used to select the most informative biomarkers. Risk model performance was estimated using a validated bootstrap bias-correction procedure. RESULTS: A model using six biomarkers (adiponectin, C-reactive protein, ferritin, interleukin-2 receptor A, glucose, and insulin) was developed for assessing an individual's 5-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This model has a bootstrap-estimated area under the curve of 0.76, which is greater than that for A1C, fasting plasma glucose, fasting serum insulin, BMI, sex-adjusted waist circumference, a model using fasting glucose and insulin, and a noninvasive clinical model. CONCLUSIONS: A model incorporating six circulating biomarkers provides an objective and quantitative estimate of the 5-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes, performs better than single risk indicators and a noninvasive clinical model, and provides better stratification than fasting plasma glucose alone.
AB - OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to develop a model for assessing the 5-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes from a panel of 64 circulating candidate biomarkers. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Subjects were selected from the Inter99 cohort, a longitudinal population-based study of approximately 6,600 Danes in a nested case-control design with the primary outcome of 5-year conversion to type 2 diabetes. Nondiabetic subjects, aged >or=39 years, with BMI >or=25 kg/m(2) at baseline were selected. Baseline fasting serum samples from 160 individuals who developed type 2 diabetes and from 472 who did not were tested. An ultrasensitive immunoassay was used to measure of 58 candidate biomarkers in multiple diabetes-associated pathways, along with six routine clinical variables. Statistical learning methods and permutation testing were used to select the most informative biomarkers. Risk model performance was estimated using a validated bootstrap bias-correction procedure. RESULTS: A model using six biomarkers (adiponectin, C-reactive protein, ferritin, interleukin-2 receptor A, glucose, and insulin) was developed for assessing an individual's 5-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This model has a bootstrap-estimated area under the curve of 0.76, which is greater than that for A1C, fasting plasma glucose, fasting serum insulin, BMI, sex-adjusted waist circumference, a model using fasting glucose and insulin, and a noninvasive clinical model. CONCLUSIONS: A model incorporating six circulating biomarkers provides an objective and quantitative estimate of the 5-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes, performs better than single risk indicators and a noninvasive clinical model, and provides better stratification than fasting plasma glucose alone.
U2 - 10.2337/dc08-1935
DO - 10.2337/dc08-1935
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 19564473
VL - 32
SP - 1207
EP - 1212
JO - Diabetes Care
JF - Diabetes Care
SN - 0149-5992
IS - 7
ER -
ID: 13206303