Sustained improved survival of patients with metastatic melanoma after the introduction of anti-PD-1-based therapies
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Sustained improved survival of patients with metastatic melanoma after the introduction of anti-PD-1-based therapies. / Schina, Aimilia; Pedersen, Sidsel; Spenning, Anne Louise; Laursen, Olivia Kaas; Pedersen, Cecilia; Haslund, Charlotte Aaquist; Schmidt, Henrik; Bastholt, Lars; Svane, Inge Marie; Ellebaek, Eva; Donia, Marco.
I: European Journal of Cancer, Bind 195, 113392, 2023.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Sustained improved survival of patients with metastatic melanoma after the introduction of anti-PD-1-based therapies
AU - Schina, Aimilia
AU - Pedersen, Sidsel
AU - Spenning, Anne Louise
AU - Laursen, Olivia Kaas
AU - Pedersen, Cecilia
AU - Haslund, Charlotte Aaquist
AU - Schmidt, Henrik
AU - Bastholt, Lars
AU - Svane, Inge Marie
AU - Ellebaek, Eva
AU - Donia, Marco
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Background: The introduction of modern therapies improved the median survival of patients with metastatic melanoma (MM). Here, we determined the real-world impact of modern treatments on the long-term survival of MM. Methods: In a population-based study, we extracted all cases of MM diagnosed in four non-consecutive years marked by major changes in available 1st line treatments (2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018) from the Danish MM Database. Patients were grouped into “trial-like” and “trial-excluded” based on common trial eligibility criteria. Results: We observed a sustained improved survival of “trial-like” patients diagnosed in 2016 or in 2018, compared to 2012 or 2014, but no major differences in 2018 versus 2016. In contrast, while survival of “trial-excluded” patients in 2016 was better compared to 2014 and 2012, survival in 2018 was improved over all previous years. We then developed a prognostic model based on multivariable stratified Cox regression, to predict the survival of newly diagnosed MM patients. Internal validation showed excellent discrimination and calibration, with a time-area-under-the-curve above 0.79 at multiple time horizons, for up to four years after diagnosis. Conclusions: The introduction of modern treatments such as anti-PD-1 has led to a sustained, improved survival of real-world patients with MM, regardless of their eligibility for clinical trials. We provide an updateable prognostic model that can be used to improve patient information. Overall, these data highlight a positive population-based impact of modern treatments and can help health technology assessment agencies worldwide to evaluate the appropriateness of drug pricing based on known cost-benefit data.
AB - Background: The introduction of modern therapies improved the median survival of patients with metastatic melanoma (MM). Here, we determined the real-world impact of modern treatments on the long-term survival of MM. Methods: In a population-based study, we extracted all cases of MM diagnosed in four non-consecutive years marked by major changes in available 1st line treatments (2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018) from the Danish MM Database. Patients were grouped into “trial-like” and “trial-excluded” based on common trial eligibility criteria. Results: We observed a sustained improved survival of “trial-like” patients diagnosed in 2016 or in 2018, compared to 2012 or 2014, but no major differences in 2018 versus 2016. In contrast, while survival of “trial-excluded” patients in 2016 was better compared to 2014 and 2012, survival in 2018 was improved over all previous years. We then developed a prognostic model based on multivariable stratified Cox regression, to predict the survival of newly diagnosed MM patients. Internal validation showed excellent discrimination and calibration, with a time-area-under-the-curve above 0.79 at multiple time horizons, for up to four years after diagnosis. Conclusions: The introduction of modern treatments such as anti-PD-1 has led to a sustained, improved survival of real-world patients with MM, regardless of their eligibility for clinical trials. We provide an updateable prognostic model that can be used to improve patient information. Overall, these data highlight a positive population-based impact of modern treatments and can help health technology assessment agencies worldwide to evaluate the appropriateness of drug pricing based on known cost-benefit data.
KW - Immunotherapy
KW - Improved survival
KW - Metastatic melanoma
KW - Modern treatments
KW - Prognostic prediction model
KW - Real world evidence
KW - Survival prediction
U2 - 10.1016/j.ejca.2023.113392
DO - 10.1016/j.ejca.2023.113392
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 37924648
AN - SCOPUS:85175626680
VL - 195
JO - European Journal of Cancer, Supplement
JF - European Journal of Cancer, Supplement
SN - 0959-8049
M1 - 113392
ER -
ID: 396013994