Mortality related to extreme temperature for 15 cities in northeast Asia
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Mortality related to extreme temperature for 15 cities in northeast Asia. / Chung, Yeonseung; Lim, Youn-Hee; Honda, Yasushi; Guo, Yue-Liang Leon; Hashizume, Masahiro; Bell, Michelle L; Chen, Bing-Yu; Kim, Ho.
I: Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), Bind 26, Nr. 2, 2015, s. 255-262.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Mortality related to extreme temperature for 15 cities in northeast Asia
AU - Chung, Yeonseung
AU - Lim, Youn-Hee
AU - Honda, Yasushi
AU - Guo, Yue-Liang Leon
AU - Hashizume, Masahiro
AU - Bell, Michelle L
AU - Chen, Bing-Yu
AU - Kim, Ho
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - BACKGROUND: Multisite time-series studies for temperature-related mortality have been conducted mainly in the United States and Europe, but are lacking in Asia. This multisite time-series study examined mortality related to extreme temperatures (both cold and hot) in Northeast Asia, focusing on 15 cities of 3 high-income countries.METHODS: This study includes 3 cities in Taiwan for 1994-2007, 6 cities in Korea for 1992-2010, and 6 cities in Japan for 1972-2009. We used 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical Poisson semiparametric regression to model the nonlinear relationship between temperature and mortality, providing city-specific and country-wide estimates for cold and heat effects. Various exposure time frames, age groups, and causes of death were considered.RESULTS: Cold effects had longer time lags (5-11 days) than heat effects, which were immediate (1-3 days). Cold effects were larger for cities in Taiwan, whereas heat effects were larger for cities in Korea and Japan. Patterns of increasing effects with age were observed in both cold and heat effects. Both cold and heat effects were larger for cardiorespiratory mortality than for other causes of death. Several city characteristics related to weather or air pollution were associated with both cold and heat effects.CONCLUSIONS: Mortality increased with either cold or hot temperature in urban populations of high-income countries in Northeast Asia, with spatial variations of effects among cities and countries. Findings suggest that climate factors are major contributors to the spatial heterogeneity of effects in this region, although further research is merited to identify other factors as determinants of variability.
AB - BACKGROUND: Multisite time-series studies for temperature-related mortality have been conducted mainly in the United States and Europe, but are lacking in Asia. This multisite time-series study examined mortality related to extreme temperatures (both cold and hot) in Northeast Asia, focusing on 15 cities of 3 high-income countries.METHODS: This study includes 3 cities in Taiwan for 1994-2007, 6 cities in Korea for 1992-2010, and 6 cities in Japan for 1972-2009. We used 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical Poisson semiparametric regression to model the nonlinear relationship between temperature and mortality, providing city-specific and country-wide estimates for cold and heat effects. Various exposure time frames, age groups, and causes of death were considered.RESULTS: Cold effects had longer time lags (5-11 days) than heat effects, which were immediate (1-3 days). Cold effects were larger for cities in Taiwan, whereas heat effects were larger for cities in Korea and Japan. Patterns of increasing effects with age were observed in both cold and heat effects. Both cold and heat effects were larger for cardiorespiratory mortality than for other causes of death. Several city characteristics related to weather or air pollution were associated with both cold and heat effects.CONCLUSIONS: Mortality increased with either cold or hot temperature in urban populations of high-income countries in Northeast Asia, with spatial variations of effects among cities and countries. Findings suggest that climate factors are major contributors to the spatial heterogeneity of effects in this region, although further research is merited to identify other factors as determinants of variability.
KW - Adolescent
KW - Adult
KW - Aged
KW - Aged, 80 and over
KW - Bayes Theorem
KW - Cause of Death
KW - Child
KW - Child, Preschool
KW - Cold Temperature/adverse effects
KW - Hot Temperature/adverse effects
KW - Humans
KW - Infant
KW - Infant, Newborn
KW - Japan/epidemiology
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Models, Statistical
KW - Poisson Distribution
KW - Regression Analysis
KW - Republic of Korea/epidemiology
KW - Risk Factors
KW - Taiwan/epidemiology
KW - Young Adult
U2 - 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000229
DO - 10.1097/EDE.0000000000000229
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 25643105
VL - 26
SP - 255
EP - 262
JO - Epidemiology
JF - Epidemiology
SN - 1044-3983
IS - 2
ER -
ID: 230070666