Malthus in Cointegration Space: A new look at living standards and population in pre-industrial England
Publikation: Working paper › Forskning
Standard
Malthus in Cointegration Space : A new look at living standards and population in pre-industrial England. / Møller, Niels Framroze; Sharp, Paul Richard.
Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 2008.Publikation: Working paper › Forskning
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Author
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
T1 - Malthus in Cointegration Space
T2 - A new look at living standards and population in pre-industrial England
AU - Møller, Niels Framroze
AU - Sharp, Paul Richard
N1 - JEL classification: C32, N3, O1
PY - 2008
Y1 - 2008
N2 - We analyze Malthus' (1798) model when labor demand shifts persistently. The Malthusian ideas are formalized and derived in terms of stationarity and cointegration, and the implied restrictions are tested against English pre-industrial data 1560-1760. The evidence suggests a negligible marginal productivity effect of population on real income, implying that the Malthusian "check" relations should be analyzed as cointegrating relations. The data support highly significant preventive checks working via marriages, but weak (in-significant) positive checks. These results are remarkably clear-cut. We suggest a simple interpretation for the lack of response of real income to population, which is consistent with positive feed back effects from population on technology, à la Boserupian- and/or Smithian mechanisms. Recursive estimation confirms stable parameters and identify the end of our modified Malthusian regime.
AB - We analyze Malthus' (1798) model when labor demand shifts persistently. The Malthusian ideas are formalized and derived in terms of stationarity and cointegration, and the implied restrictions are tested against English pre-industrial data 1560-1760. The evidence suggests a negligible marginal productivity effect of population on real income, implying that the Malthusian "check" relations should be analyzed as cointegrating relations. The data support highly significant preventive checks working via marriages, but weak (in-significant) positive checks. These results are remarkably clear-cut. We suggest a simple interpretation for the lack of response of real income to population, which is consistent with positive feed back effects from population on technology, à la Boserupian- and/or Smithian mechanisms. Recursive estimation confirms stable parameters and identify the end of our modified Malthusian regime.
M3 - Working paper
BT - Malthus in Cointegration Space
PB - Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen
ER -
ID: 5241798