TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-Term Incidence of Ischemic Stroke after Transient Ischemic Attack

T2 - A Nationwide Study from 2014 to 2020

AU - Vinding, Naja Emborg

AU - Butt, Jawad H.

AU - Lauridsen, Marie Dam

AU - Kristensen, Søren Lund

AU - Johnsen, Søren Paaske

AU - Krøll, Johanna

AU - Graversen, Peter L.

AU - Kruuse, Christina

AU - Torp-Pedersen, Christian

AU - Køber, Lars

AU - Fosbøl, Emil L.

N1 - Funding Information: This study was supported by an internal grant from Copenhagen University Hospital in Denmark. However, the foundation did not have any influence on the study design, data acquisition, data analysis, or preparation of the article, or any effect on the publication process. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins. All rights reserved.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - BACKGROUND: The short-term incidence of ischemic stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) is high. However, data on the long-term incidence are not well known but are needed to guide preventive strategies. METHODS: Patients with first-time TIA (index date) in the Danish Stroke Registry (January 2014-December 2020) were included and matched 1:4 with individuals from the background population and 1:1 with patients with a first-time ischemic stroke on the basis of age, sex, and calendar year. The incidences of ischemic stroke and mortality from index date were estimated by Aalen-Johansen and Kaplan-Meier estimators, respectively, and compared between groups using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: We included 21 500 patients with TIA, 86 000 patients from the background population, and 21 500 patients with ischemic stroke (median age, 70.8 years [25th-75th percentile, 60.8-78.7]; 53.1% males). Patients with TIA had more comorbidities than the background population, yet less than the control stroke population. The 5-year incidence of ischemic stroke after TIA (6.1% [95% CI, 5.7-6.5]) was higher than the background population (1.5% [95% CI, 1.4-1.6], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 5.14 [95% CI, 4.65-5.69]) but lower than the control stroke population (8.9% [95% CI, 8.4-9.4], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.53-0.64]). The 5-year mortality for patients with TIA (18.6% [95% CI, 17.9-19.3]) was higher than the background population (14.8% [95% CI, 14.5-15.1], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.20-1.32]) but lower than the control stroke population (30.1% [95% CI, 29.3-30.9], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.39-0.44]). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with first-time TIA had an ischemic stroke incidence of 6.1% during the 5-year follow-up period. After adjustment for relevant comorbidities, this incidence was approximately 5-fold higher than what was found for controls in the background population and 40% lower than for patients with recurrent ischemic stroke.

AB - BACKGROUND: The short-term incidence of ischemic stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) is high. However, data on the long-term incidence are not well known but are needed to guide preventive strategies. METHODS: Patients with first-time TIA (index date) in the Danish Stroke Registry (January 2014-December 2020) were included and matched 1:4 with individuals from the background population and 1:1 with patients with a first-time ischemic stroke on the basis of age, sex, and calendar year. The incidences of ischemic stroke and mortality from index date were estimated by Aalen-Johansen and Kaplan-Meier estimators, respectively, and compared between groups using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: We included 21 500 patients with TIA, 86 000 patients from the background population, and 21 500 patients with ischemic stroke (median age, 70.8 years [25th-75th percentile, 60.8-78.7]; 53.1% males). Patients with TIA had more comorbidities than the background population, yet less than the control stroke population. The 5-year incidence of ischemic stroke after TIA (6.1% [95% CI, 5.7-6.5]) was higher than the background population (1.5% [95% CI, 1.4-1.6], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 5.14 [95% CI, 4.65-5.69]) but lower than the control stroke population (8.9% [95% CI, 8.4-9.4], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.53-0.64]). The 5-year mortality for patients with TIA (18.6% [95% CI, 17.9-19.3]) was higher than the background population (14.8% [95% CI, 14.5-15.1], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.20-1.32]) but lower than the control stroke population (30.1% [95% CI, 29.3-30.9], P<0.01; hazard ratio, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.39-0.44]). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with first-time TIA had an ischemic stroke incidence of 6.1% during the 5-year follow-up period. After adjustment for relevant comorbidities, this incidence was approximately 5-fold higher than what was found for controls in the background population and 40% lower than for patients with recurrent ischemic stroke.

KW - epidemiology

KW - ischemic stroke

KW - stroke

KW - transient ischemic attack

U2 - 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.065446

DO - 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.065446

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 37622531

AN - SCOPUS:85172425817

VL - 148

SP - 1000

EP - 1010

JO - Circulation

JF - Circulation

SN - 0009-7322

IS - 13

ER -