Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change
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Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change. / Mitchell, Charlotte; Bolam, Jamie; Bertola, Laura D.; Naude, Vincent N.; Gonçalves da Silva, Lucas; Razgour, Orly.
I: Ecology and Evolution, Bind 14, Nr. 5, e11391, 2024.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Leopard subspecies conservation under climate and land-use change
AU - Mitchell, Charlotte
AU - Bolam, Jamie
AU - Bertola, Laura D.
AU - Naude, Vincent N.
AU - Gonçalves da Silva, Lucas
AU - Razgour, Orly
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Predicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land-use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%–16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land-use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human-wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.
AB - Predicting the effects of global environmental changes on species distribution is a top conservation priority, particularly for large carnivores, that contribute to regulating and maintaining ecosystems. As the most widespread and adaptable large felid, ranging across Africa and Asia, leopards are crucial to many ecosystems as both keystone and umbrella species, yet they are threatened across their ranges. We used intraspecific species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range suitability for leopards under future climate and land-use change and identify conservation gaps and opportunities. We generated intraspecific SDMs for the three western leopard subspecies, the African, Panthera pardus pardus; Arabian, Panthera pardus nimr; and Persian, Panthera pardus tulliana, leopards, and overlapped predictions with protected areas (PAs) coverage. We show that leopard subspecies differ in their environmental associations and vulnerability to future changes. The African and Arabian leopards are predicted to lose ~25% and ~14% of their currently suitable range, respectively, while the Persian leopard is predicted to experience ~12% range gains. We found that most areas predicted to be suitable were not protected, with only 4%–16% of the subspecies' ranges falling inside PAs, and that these proportions will decrease in the future. The highly variable responses we found between leopard subspecies highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation when modelling vulnerability to climate and land-use changes. The predicted decrease in proportion of suitable ranges falling inside PAs threatens global capacity to effectively conserve leopards because survival rates are substantially lower outside PAs due to persecution. Hence, it is important to work with local communities to address negative human-wildlife interactions and to restore habitats to retain landscape connectivity where PA coverage is low. On the other hand, the predicted increase in range suitability across southern Europe presents opportunities for expansion outside of their contemporary range, capitalising on European rewilding schemes.
KW - climate change
KW - gap analysis
KW - intraspecific variability
KW - Panthera pardus
KW - protected areas
KW - species distribution models
U2 - 10.1002/ece3.11391
DO - 10.1002/ece3.11391
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 38779533
AN - SCOPUS:85193833586
VL - 14
JO - Ecology and Evolution
JF - Ecology and Evolution
SN - 2045-7758
IS - 5
M1 - e11391
ER -
ID: 394478791