High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb
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High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb. / Christiansen, Ditte M.; Römer, Gesa; Dahlgren, Johan P.; Borg, Malin; Jones, Owen R.; Merinero, Sonia; Hylander, Kristoffer; Ehrlén, Johan.
I: Ecology, Bind 105, Nr. 1, e4191, 2024.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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T1 - High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb
AU - Christiansen, Ditte M.
AU - Römer, Gesa
AU - Dahlgren, Johan P.
AU - Borg, Malin
AU - Jones, Owen R.
AU - Merinero, Sonia
AU - Hylander, Kristoffer
AU - Ehrlén, Johan
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.
AB - Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average. This problem is likely to be particularly important for sessile organisms like plants and in environments where small-scale variation in climate is large. To quantify the effect of local temperature on vital rates and population growth rates, we used temperature values measured at the local scale (in situ logger measures) and integral projection models with demographic data from 37 populations of the forest herb Lathyrus vernus across a wide latitudinal gradient in Sweden. To assess how the spatial resolution of temperature data influences assessments of climate effects, we compared effects from models using local data with models using regionally aggregated temperature data at several spatial resolutions (≥1 km). Using local temperature data, we found that spring frost reduced the asymptotic population growth rate in the first of two annual transitions and influenced survival in both transitions. Only one of the four regional estimates showed a similar negative effect of spring frost on population growth rate. Our results for a perennial forest herb show that analyses using regionally aggregated data often fail to identify the effects of climate on population dynamics. This emphasizes the importance of using organism-relevant estimates of climate when examining effects on individual performance and population dynamics, as well as when modeling species distributions. For sessile organisms that experience the environment over small spatial scales, this will require climate data at high spatial resolutions.
KW - climate change
KW - climate scale
KW - demography
KW - integral projection model
KW - Lathyrus vernus
KW - microclimate
KW - plant population dynamics
KW - population growth rate
KW - species distributions
KW - spring frost
U2 - 10.1002/ecy.4191
DO - 10.1002/ecy.4191
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 37878669
AN - SCOPUS:85177781257
VL - 105
JO - Ecology
JF - Ecology
SN - 0012-9658
IS - 1
M1 - e4191
ER -
ID: 376543732