Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature
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Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature. / Hillebrand, Eric; Johansen, Søren; Schmith, Torben.
I: Econometrics, Bind 8, Nr. 4, 41, 12.2020.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature
AU - Hillebrand, Eric
AU - Johansen, Søren
AU - Schmith, Torben
PY - 2020/12
Y1 - 2020/12
N2 - We study the stability of estimated linear statistical relations of global mean temperature and global mean sea level with regard to data revisions. Using four different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficient estimates and long-term sea level projections using two different vintages of each of the annual time series, covering the periods 1880-2001 and 1880-2013. We find that temperature and sea level updates and revisions have a substantial influence both on the magnitude of the estimated coefficients of influence (differences of up to 50%) and therefore on long-term projections of sea level rise following the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios (differences of up to 40 cm by the year 2100). This shows that in order to replicate earlier results that informed the scientific discussion and motivated policy recommendations, it is crucial to have access to and to work with the data vintages used at the time.
AB - We study the stability of estimated linear statistical relations of global mean temperature and global mean sea level with regard to data revisions. Using four different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficient estimates and long-term sea level projections using two different vintages of each of the annual time series, covering the periods 1880-2001 and 1880-2013. We find that temperature and sea level updates and revisions have a substantial influence both on the magnitude of the estimated coefficients of influence (differences of up to 50%) and therefore on long-term projections of sea level rise following the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios (differences of up to 40 cm by the year 2100). This shows that in order to replicate earlier results that informed the scientific discussion and motivated policy recommendations, it is crucial to have access to and to work with the data vintages used at the time.
KW - sea level
KW - temperature
KW - semi-empirical models
KW - data revisions
KW - IMPACT
KW - STABILIZATION
KW - PATHWAY
KW - TRENDS
KW - RISE
U2 - 10.3390/econometrics8040041
DO - 10.3390/econometrics8040041
M3 - Journal article
VL - 8
JO - Econometrics
JF - Econometrics
SN - 2225-1146
IS - 4
M1 - 41
ER -
ID: 255346972