TY - JOUR

T1 - COVID-19 vaccine acceptance

T2 - A comparative longitudinal analysis of the association between risk perception, confidence, and the acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine

AU - Martinelli, Mauro

AU - Veltri, Giuseppe A.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 Society for Risk Analysis.

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Following the outbreak of COVID-19, scientists rushed to develop vaccines to protect individuals and ferry the world out of the pandemic. Unfortunately, vaccine hesitancy is a major threat to the success of vaccination campaigns. Research on previous pandemics highlighted the centrality of perceived risk and confidence as core determinants of vaccine acceptance. Research on COVID-19 is less conclusive, and frequently it relies on one-country, cross-sectional data, thus making it hard to generalize results across contexts and observe these relationships over time. To bridge these gaps, in this article, we analyzed the association between perceived risk, confidence, and vaccine acceptance cross-sectionally at individual and country levels. Then, we longitudinally explored whether a within-country variation in perceived risk and confidence was correlated with a variation in vaccine acceptance. We used data from a large-scale survey of individuals in 23 countries and 19 time-points between June 2020 and March 2021 and comparative longitudinal multilevel models to estimate the associations at different levels of analysis simultaneously. Results show the existence of cross-sectional relationships at the individual and country levels but no significant associations within countries over time. This article contributes to our understanding of the roles of risk perception and confidence in COVID-19 vaccines’ acceptance by underlining that these relationships might differ at diverse levels of analysis. To foster vaccine uptake, it might be important to address individual concerns and persisting contextual characteristics, but increasing levels of perceived risk and confidence might not be a sufficient strategy to increase vaccine acceptance rates.

AB - Following the outbreak of COVID-19, scientists rushed to develop vaccines to protect individuals and ferry the world out of the pandemic. Unfortunately, vaccine hesitancy is a major threat to the success of vaccination campaigns. Research on previous pandemics highlighted the centrality of perceived risk and confidence as core determinants of vaccine acceptance. Research on COVID-19 is less conclusive, and frequently it relies on one-country, cross-sectional data, thus making it hard to generalize results across contexts and observe these relationships over time. To bridge these gaps, in this article, we analyzed the association between perceived risk, confidence, and vaccine acceptance cross-sectionally at individual and country levels. Then, we longitudinally explored whether a within-country variation in perceived risk and confidence was correlated with a variation in vaccine acceptance. We used data from a large-scale survey of individuals in 23 countries and 19 time-points between June 2020 and March 2021 and comparative longitudinal multilevel models to estimate the associations at different levels of analysis simultaneously. Results show the existence of cross-sectional relationships at the individual and country levels but no significant associations within countries over time. This article contributes to our understanding of the roles of risk perception and confidence in COVID-19 vaccines’ acceptance by underlining that these relationships might differ at diverse levels of analysis. To foster vaccine uptake, it might be important to address individual concerns and persisting contextual characteristics, but increasing levels of perceived risk and confidence might not be a sufficient strategy to increase vaccine acceptance rates.

KW - confidence

KW - longitudinal

KW - multilevel

KW - risk perception

KW - vaccine hesitancy

KW - confidence

KW - longitudinal

KW - multilevel

KW - risk perception

KW - vaccine hesitancy

U2 - 10.1111/risa.14200

DO - 10.1111/risa.14200

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 37496470

AN - SCOPUS:85165901120

VL - 44

SP - 802

EP - 816

JO - Risk Analysis

JF - Risk Analysis

SN - 0272-4332

IS - 4

ER -