Climate change could fuel urinary schistosomiasis transmission in Africa and Europe
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The freshwater snail Bulinus truncatus is an important intermediate host for trematode parasites causing urogenital schistosomiasis, a tropical disease affecting over 150 million people. Despite its medical importance, uncertainty remains about its global distribution and the potential impacts of climate change on its future spread. Here, we investigate the distribution of B. truncatus, combining the outputs of correlative and mechanistic modelling methods to fully capitalize on both experimental and occurrence data of the species and to create a more reliable distribution forecast than ever constructed. We constructed ensemble correlative species distribution models using 273 occurrence points collected from different sources and a combination of climatic and (bio)physical environmental variables. Additionally, a mechanistic thermal suitability model was constructed, parameterized by recent life-history data obtained through extensive lab-based snail-temperature experiments and supplemented with an extensive literature review. Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for B. truncatus encompasses the Sahel region, the Middle East, and the Mediterranean segment of Africa, stretching from Southern Europe to Mozambique. Regions identified as suitable by both methods generally coincide with areas exhibiting high urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence. Model projections into the future suggest an overall net increase in suitable area of up to 17%. New suitable habitat is in Southern Europe, the Middle East, and large parts of Central Africa, while suitable habitat will be lost in the Sahel region. The change in snail habitat suitability may substantially increase the risk of urogenital schistosomiasis transmission in parts of Africa and Southern Europe while reducing it in the Sahel region.
Originalsprog | Engelsk |
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Artikelnummer | e17434 |
Tidsskrift | Global Change Biology |
Vol/bind | 30 |
Udgave nummer | 8 |
Antal sider | 12 |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
DOI | |
Status | Udgivet - 2024 |
Bibliografisk note
Funding Information:
The authors thank Penelope Vounatsou for supplying us with the Schistosoma haematobium prevalence data. Tim Maes benefited from an FWO fellowship grant (ref. no. 1S86319N) of the Research Foundation\u2014Flanders. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 101000365 (PREPARE4VBD). Anna-Sofie Stensgaard is grateful to the Knud H\u00F8jgaard Foundation for supporting the Platform for Disease Ecology, Health and Climate (grant number: 16-11-1898 and 20-11-0483).
Funding Information:
The authors thank Penelope Vounatsou for supplying us with the prevalence data. Tim Maes benefited from an FWO fellowship grant (ref. no. 1S86319N) of the Research Foundation\u2014Flanders. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No. 101000365 (PREPARE4VBD). Anna\u2010Sofie Stensgaard is grateful to the Knud H\u00F8jgaard Foundation for supporting the Platform for Disease Ecology, Health and Climate (grant number: 16\u201011\u20101898 and 20\u201011\u20100483). Schistosoma haematobium
Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
ID: 401785439