Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data

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The possibility of increased landslide activity as a result of climate change has often been suggested, but few studies quantify this connection. Here, we present and utilize a workflow for the first time solely using publicly available data to assess the impact of future changes in landslide dynamic conditioning factors on landslide movement. In our case we apply the workflow to three slow-moving coastal landslides near Vejle, presenting the first study of its kind on Danish landslides. We examine modelled water table depth (WTD) as a dynamic conditioning factor using the DK-HIP model (Danish Hydrological Information and Prognosis system) that simulates historic and future WTD. The data show a clear correlation with landslide movement as recorded by the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series for the period from 2015 to 2019. Movement of up to 84mmyr-1 occurs during wet winter months when normalized WTD exceeds +0.5m. During dry winters, no, or very little, seasonal landslide movement is observed. The DK-HIP model predicts an increase of up to 0.7m in WTD at the study area by 2100CE under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario (95% confidence), which exceeds the levels this area has experienced in recent decades (mean increase of 0.2m with a standard deviation of 0.25m). This is likely to result in increased landslide activity and acceleration of movement. In a previous episode of increased landslide activity linked to extreme precipitation in the early 1980s, one of the examined landslides accelerated, causing damage to infrastructure and buildings. Our study clearly shows that these landslides are sensitive to climate change and highlights the potential of utilizing high-quality, publicly available data to address these complex scientific questions. The quality and quantity of such data are ever increasing, and so is the potential of this kind of approach.

OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Vol/bind24
Udgave nummer6
Sider (fra-til)1897-1911
ISSN1561-8633
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2024

Bibliografisk note

Funding Information:
Residents of Morkholt are thanked for their cooperation. Lars Hansen is thanked for information on the 1981 event and for the use of photos he took during the event (Fig. 4b). Vejle Municipality is thanked for their cooperation during fieldwork and for their aid in communication with local stakeholders. Daniel Ben-Yehoshua and two anonymous reviewers are thanked for their reviews. Field validation of the remotely sensed observations was conducted within a project financed by Vejle Municipality.

Funding Information:
Gregor Luetzenburg has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 Marie Sk\u0142odowska-Curie Actions (grant no. 801199).

Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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