TY - JOUR

T1 - Analysing the impact of migration on HIV/AIDS cases using epidemiological modelling to guide policy makers

AU - Apenteng, Ofosuhene O.

AU - Osei, Prince P.

AU - Ismail, Noor Azina

AU - Chiabai, Aline

PY - 2022/3

Y1 - 2022/3

N2 - In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to estimate uncertainty in all the unknown parameters incorporated in our proposed model. Among the migrant population, 1.5572e-01 were susceptible to HIV transmission, which constituted 67,801 migrants. A proportion of migrants, 6.3773e-04, were estimated to be HIV infected, constituting 278 migrants. There were 72 (per 10,000) migrants estimated to have had AIDS, representing a proportion of 1.6611e-08. The result suggests that the disease-free steady state was unstable since the estimated basic reproduction number R-0 was 2.0906 and 2.3322 for the models without and with migration, respectively. This is not a good indicator from the public health point of view, as the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. The advantage of introduction of migration to the simple model validated the true R(0 )and the transmission rate beta associated with HIV and AIDS epidemic disease in Malaysia. It also indicates an approximately 12 percentage points increase in the rate of HIV infection with migration. (C) 2022 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.

AB - In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV and AIDS cases. A simple model for HIV and AIDS that incorporates migration and addresses its contributions to the spread of HIV and AIDS cases was constructed. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to estimate uncertainty in all the unknown parameters incorporated in our proposed model. Among the migrant population, 1.5572e-01 were susceptible to HIV transmission, which constituted 67,801 migrants. A proportion of migrants, 6.3773e-04, were estimated to be HIV infected, constituting 278 migrants. There were 72 (per 10,000) migrants estimated to have had AIDS, representing a proportion of 1.6611e-08. The result suggests that the disease-free steady state was unstable since the estimated basic reproduction number R-0 was 2.0906 and 2.3322 for the models without and with migration, respectively. This is not a good indicator from the public health point of view, as the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. The advantage of introduction of migration to the simple model validated the true R(0 )and the transmission rate beta associated with HIV and AIDS epidemic disease in Malaysia. It also indicates an approximately 12 percentage points increase in the rate of HIV infection with migration. (C) 2022 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd.

KW - Migration

KW - Mathematical transmission modeling

KW - HIV/AIDS

KW - Parameter estimation

KW - Basic reproduction number

KW - SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

KW - HIV EPIDEMIC

KW - MIGRANTS

KW - WORKERS

KW - SPREAD

KW - NUMBER

U2 - 10.1016/j.idm.2022.01.002

DO - 10.1016/j.idm.2022.01.002

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 35198841

VL - 7

SP - 252

EP - 261

JO - Infectious Disease Modelling

JF - Infectious Disease Modelling

SN - 2468-2152

IS - 1

ER -