SARS-CoV-2 superspreading in cities vs the countryside
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SARS-CoV-2 superspreading in cities vs the countryside. / Eilersen, Andreas Thomas; Sneppen, Kim.
In: A P M I S. Acta Pathologica, Microbiologica et Immunologica Scandinavica, Vol. 129, No. 7, 23.02.2021, p. 401-407.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - SARS-CoV-2 superspreading in cities vs the countryside
AU - Eilersen, Andreas Thomas
AU - Sneppen, Kim
PY - 2021/2/23
Y1 - 2021/2/23
N2 - The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was characterised by an initial rapid rise in new cases followed by a peak and a more erratic behaviour that varies between regions. This is not easy to reproduce with traditional SIR models, which predict a more symmetric epidemic. Here, we argue that superspreaders and population heterogeneity would predict such behaviour even in the absence of restrictions on social life. We present an agent-based lattice model of a disease spreading in a heterogeneous population. We predict that an epidemic driven by superspreaders will spread rapidly in cities, but not in the countryside where the sparse population limits the maximal number of secondary infections. This suggests that mitigation strategies should include restrictions on venues where people meet a large number of strangers. Furthermore, mitigating the epidemic in cities and in the countryside may require different levels of restrictions.
AB - The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was characterised by an initial rapid rise in new cases followed by a peak and a more erratic behaviour that varies between regions. This is not easy to reproduce with traditional SIR models, which predict a more symmetric epidemic. Here, we argue that superspreaders and population heterogeneity would predict such behaviour even in the absence of restrictions on social life. We present an agent-based lattice model of a disease spreading in a heterogeneous population. We predict that an epidemic driven by superspreaders will spread rapidly in cities, but not in the countryside where the sparse population limits the maximal number of secondary infections. This suggests that mitigation strategies should include restrictions on venues where people meet a large number of strangers. Furthermore, mitigating the epidemic in cities and in the countryside may require different levels of restrictions.
KW - Faculty of Science
KW - covid-19
KW - superspreading
KW - model
U2 - 10.1111/apm.13120
DO - 10.1111/apm.13120
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 33622024
VL - 129
SP - 401
EP - 407
JO - A P M I S. Acta Pathologica, Microbiologica et Immunologica Scandinavica
JF - A P M I S. Acta Pathologica, Microbiologica et Immunologica Scandinavica
SN - 0903-4641
IS - 7
ER -
ID: 257288062