Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants
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Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants. / Nielsen, Bjarke Frost; Eilersen, Andreas; Simonsen, Lone; Sneppen, Kim.
In: Epidemics, Vol. 40, 100613, 02.09.2022.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants
AU - Nielsen, Bjarke Frost
AU - Eilersen, Andreas
AU - Simonsen, Lone
AU - Sneppen, Kim
PY - 2022/9/2
Y1 - 2022/9/2
N2 - The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease charac-terized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variability in viral load, suggesting for example that the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant is more infectious but relatively less prone to superspreading. Meanwhile, non-pharmaceutical mitigation of the pandemic has focused on limiting social contacts (lockdowns, regulations on gatherings) and decreasing transmission risk through mask wearing and social distancing. Using a mathematical model, we show that the competitive advantage of disease variants may heavily depend on the restrictions imposed. In particular, we find that lockdowns exert an evolutionary pressure which favours variants with lower levels of overdispersion. Our results suggest that overdispersion is an evolutionarily unstable trait, with a tendency for more homogeneously spreading variants to eventually dominate.
AB - The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease charac-terized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variability in viral load, suggesting for example that the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant is more infectious but relatively less prone to superspreading. Meanwhile, non-pharmaceutical mitigation of the pandemic has focused on limiting social contacts (lockdowns, regulations on gatherings) and decreasing transmission risk through mask wearing and social distancing. Using a mathematical model, we show that the competitive advantage of disease variants may heavily depend on the restrictions imposed. In particular, we find that lockdowns exert an evolutionary pressure which favours variants with lower levels of overdispersion. Our results suggest that overdispersion is an evolutionarily unstable trait, with a tendency for more homogeneously spreading variants to eventually dominate.
KW - Overdispersion
KW - Evolution
KW - Superspreading
KW - Non-pharmaceutical interventions
KW - TRANSMISSION
U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100613
DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100613
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 35939969
VL - 40
JO - Epidemics
JF - Epidemics
SN - 1755-4365
M1 - 100613
ER -
ID: 321542946