Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders
Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders. / Bhattacharyya, Sambit; Keller, Michael.
I: Economica, Bind 88, Nr. 349, 2021, s. 129-166.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders
AU - Bhattacharyya, Sambit
AU - Keller, Michael
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - We investigate the causal effects of giant and first oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in single-risk and multiple-risk discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a single-risk model especially in a non-election year. In contrast, oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a multiple-risk model, oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appear to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.
AB - We investigate the causal effects of giant and first oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in single-risk and multiple-risk discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a single-risk model especially in a non-election year. In contrast, oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a multiple-risk model, oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appear to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.
UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/2f609780-18c8-3189-91b5-22a6451dbcc4/
U2 - 10.1111/ecca.12350
DO - 10.1111/ecca.12350
M3 - Journal article
VL - 88
SP - 129
EP - 166
JO - Economica
JF - Economica
SN - 0013-0427
IS - 349
ER -
ID: 249946572