TY - JOUR

T1 - Automated local lockdowns for SARS-CoV-2 epidemic control—assessment of effect by controlled interrupted time series analysis

AU - Espenhain, Laura

AU - Ethelberg, Steen

AU - Mortensen, Laust Hvas

AU - Christiansen, Lasse Engbo

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2024 The Authors

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, broad non-pharmaceutical interventions such as national lockdowns were effective but had significant drawbacks, prompting targeted approaches, such as Denmark's localized lockdowns, based on specific epidemiological criteria. This study evaluates the effect of Denmark's automated local lockdown strategy on epidemic control to inform future response. Methods: This was a register-based controlled interrupted time series analysis, examining SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in Danish parishes from March to September 2021. The matching of control parishes was based on location, time, and pre-lockdown infection trends, with the lockdown's start defined as the day after a parish exceeded the lockdown criteria. Follow-up included 3-week pre-lockdown and 2-week post-lockdown. Results: A total of 30 parishes were mandated to lockdown, approximately 3.5% of the population of Denmark. A total of 94 control parishes were used as 109 controls. The decrease in the incidence during the 2-week follow-up period after the initiation of the lockdown was 13% points higher in case parishes: in case parishes, the incidence was reduced by 78% compared with 65% in control parishes. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that local lockdowns did have a positive effect in mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, making them valuable in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and an important alternative to national lockdowns.

AB - Objectives: During the COVID-19 pandemic, broad non-pharmaceutical interventions such as national lockdowns were effective but had significant drawbacks, prompting targeted approaches, such as Denmark's localized lockdowns, based on specific epidemiological criteria. This study evaluates the effect of Denmark's automated local lockdown strategy on epidemic control to inform future response. Methods: This was a register-based controlled interrupted time series analysis, examining SARS-CoV-2 infection rates in Danish parishes from March to September 2021. The matching of control parishes was based on location, time, and pre-lockdown infection trends, with the lockdown's start defined as the day after a parish exceeded the lockdown criteria. Follow-up included 3-week pre-lockdown and 2-week post-lockdown. Results: A total of 30 parishes were mandated to lockdown, approximately 3.5% of the population of Denmark. A total of 94 control parishes were used as 109 controls. The decrease in the incidence during the 2-week follow-up period after the initiation of the lockdown was 13% points higher in case parishes: in case parishes, the incidence was reduced by 78% compared with 65% in control parishes. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that local lockdowns did have a positive effect in mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, making them valuable in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and an important alternative to national lockdowns.

KW - Containment strategies

KW - Epidemic control

KW - Epidemiology

KW - Public health

KW - Regional lockdown

KW - SARS-CoV-2

U2 - 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100380

DO - 10.1016/j.ijregi.2024.100380

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 38911235

AN - SCOPUS:85195516894

VL - 12

JO - IJID Regions (Online)

JF - IJID Regions (Online)

SN - 2772-7076

M1 - 100380

ER -