The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelfagfællebedømt

Standard

The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning. / Bylling, Henrik C.; Pineda, Salvador; Boomsma, Trine K.

I: Annals of Operations Research, Bind 284, 2020, s. 199–223.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelfagfællebedømt

Harvard

Bylling, HC, Pineda, S & Boomsma, TK 2020, 'The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning', Annals of Operations Research, bind 284, s. 199–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-3097-3

APA

Bylling, H. C., Pineda, S., & Boomsma, T. K. (2020). The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning. Annals of Operations Research, 284, 199–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-3097-3

Vancouver

Bylling HC, Pineda S, Boomsma TK. The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning. Annals of Operations Research. 2020;284:199–223. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-018-3097-3

Author

Bylling, Henrik C. ; Pineda, Salvador ; Boomsma, Trine K. / The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning. I: Annals of Operations Research. 2020 ; Bind 284. s. 199–223.

Bibtex

@article{2316801bb51a4203b2e18b222fdcd729,
title = "The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning",
abstract = "Traditionally, long-term investment planning models have been the apparent tool to analyse future developments in the energy sector. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, however, the modelling of short-term operational issues becomes increasingly important in two respects: first, in relation to variability and second, with respect to uncertainty. A model that includes both may easily become intractable, while the negligence of variability and uncertainty may result in sub-optimal and/or unrealistic decision-making. This paper investigates methods for aggregating data and reducing model size to obtain tractable yet close-to-optimal investment planning decisions. The aim is to investigate whether short-term variability or uncertainty is more important and under which circumstances. In particular, we consider a generation expansion problem and compare various representations of short-term variability and uncertainty of demand and renewable supply. The main results are derived from a case study on the Danish power system. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of representative days is crucial for the feasibility and quality of long-term power planning decisions. In fact, we observe that short-term uncertainty can be ignored if a sufficient number of representative days is included.",
keywords = "Generation expansion, Investment, Power planning problems, Uncertainty, Variability",
author = "Bylling, {Henrik C.} and Salvador Pineda and Boomsma, {Trine K.}",
year = "2020",
doi = "10.1007/s10479-018-3097-3",
language = "English",
volume = "284",
pages = "199–223",
journal = "Annals of Operations Research",
issn = "0254-5330",
publisher = "Springer",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The impact of short-term variability and uncertainty on long-term power planning

AU - Bylling, Henrik C.

AU - Pineda, Salvador

AU - Boomsma, Trine K.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - Traditionally, long-term investment planning models have been the apparent tool to analyse future developments in the energy sector. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, however, the modelling of short-term operational issues becomes increasingly important in two respects: first, in relation to variability and second, with respect to uncertainty. A model that includes both may easily become intractable, while the negligence of variability and uncertainty may result in sub-optimal and/or unrealistic decision-making. This paper investigates methods for aggregating data and reducing model size to obtain tractable yet close-to-optimal investment planning decisions. The aim is to investigate whether short-term variability or uncertainty is more important and under which circumstances. In particular, we consider a generation expansion problem and compare various representations of short-term variability and uncertainty of demand and renewable supply. The main results are derived from a case study on the Danish power system. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of representative days is crucial for the feasibility and quality of long-term power planning decisions. In fact, we observe that short-term uncertainty can be ignored if a sufficient number of representative days is included.

AB - Traditionally, long-term investment planning models have been the apparent tool to analyse future developments in the energy sector. With the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources, however, the modelling of short-term operational issues becomes increasingly important in two respects: first, in relation to variability and second, with respect to uncertainty. A model that includes both may easily become intractable, while the negligence of variability and uncertainty may result in sub-optimal and/or unrealistic decision-making. This paper investigates methods for aggregating data and reducing model size to obtain tractable yet close-to-optimal investment planning decisions. The aim is to investigate whether short-term variability or uncertainty is more important and under which circumstances. In particular, we consider a generation expansion problem and compare various representations of short-term variability and uncertainty of demand and renewable supply. The main results are derived from a case study on the Danish power system. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of representative days is crucial for the feasibility and quality of long-term power planning decisions. In fact, we observe that short-term uncertainty can be ignored if a sufficient number of representative days is included.

KW - Generation expansion

KW - Investment

KW - Power planning problems

KW - Uncertainty

KW - Variability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85056826355&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s10479-018-3097-3

DO - 10.1007/s10479-018-3097-3

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85056826355

VL - 284

SP - 199

EP - 223

JO - Annals of Operations Research

JF - Annals of Operations Research

SN - 0254-5330

ER -

ID: 218719967