The 1918 epidemic and a V-shaped recession: Evidence from historical tax records
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We exploit high-quality vital statistics data and annual income data, obtained from historical municipality tax records, to study the economic aftermath of the 1918-influenza epidemic in Denmark. We find that average income followed a V-shaped path from 1917 to 1919 and (if anything) municipalities with higher 1918-influenza mortality rates experienced more pronounced declines and recoveries. In addition, national month-by-industry unemployment data show that unemployment rates were high during the epidemic, but decreased again a couple of months after the epidemic receded. Evidence from the Danish stock market exchange also indicates that the epidemic only had short-lived effects on the economy.
Originalsprog | Engelsk |
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Tidsskrift | The Scandinavian Journal of Economics |
Vol/bind | 124 |
Udgave nummer | 1 |
Sider (fra-til) | 139-163 |
ISSN | 1467-9442 |
DOI | |
Status | Udgivet - 2022 |
- 1918-influenza epidemic, Pandemic Economics, V-shaped recession
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