Ranking of average treatment effects with generalized random forests for time-to-event outcomes
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Ranking of average treatment effects with generalized random forests for time-to-event outcomes. / Rytgaard, Helene C.W.; Ekstrøm, Claus T.; Kessing, Lars V.; Gerds, Thomas A.
I: Statistics in Medicine, Bind 42, Nr. 10, 2023, s. 1542-1564.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Ranking of average treatment effects with generalized random forests for time-to-event outcomes
AU - Rytgaard, Helene C.W.
AU - Ekstrøm, Claus T.
AU - Kessing, Lars V.
AU - Gerds, Thomas A.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - Linkage between drug claims data and clinical outcome allows a data-driven experimental approach to drug repurposing. We develop an estimation procedure based on generalized random forests for estimation of time-point specific average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting with competing risks. To handle right-censoring, we propose a two-step procedure for estimation, applying inverse probability weighting to construct time-point specific weighted outcomes as input for the generalized random forest. The generalized random forests adaptively handle covariate effects on the treatment assignment by applying a splitting rule that targets a causal parameter. Using simulated data we demonstrate that the method is effective for a causal search through a list of treatments to be ranked according to the magnitude of their effect on clinical outcome. We illustrate the method using the Danish national health registries where it is of interest to discover drugs with an unexpected protective effect against relapse of severe depression.
AB - Linkage between drug claims data and clinical outcome allows a data-driven experimental approach to drug repurposing. We develop an estimation procedure based on generalized random forests for estimation of time-point specific average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting with competing risks. To handle right-censoring, we propose a two-step procedure for estimation, applying inverse probability weighting to construct time-point specific weighted outcomes as input for the generalized random forest. The generalized random forests adaptively handle covariate effects on the treatment assignment by applying a splitting rule that targets a causal parameter. Using simulated data we demonstrate that the method is effective for a causal search through a list of treatments to be ranked according to the magnitude of their effect on clinical outcome. We illustrate the method using the Danish national health registries where it is of interest to discover drugs with an unexpected protective effect against relapse of severe depression.
KW - average treatment effect
KW - competing risks
KW - random forests
KW - time-to-event
U2 - 10.1002/sim.9686
DO - 10.1002/sim.9686
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 36815690
AN - SCOPUS:85148610032
VL - 42
SP - 1542
EP - 1564
JO - Statistics in Medicine
JF - Statistics in Medicine
SN - 0277-6715
IS - 10
ER -
ID: 339547252