TY - JOUR

T1 - Knowledge update in adaptive management of forest resources under climate change

T2 - a Bayesian simulation approach

AU - Yousefpour, Rasoul

AU - Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

AU - Meilby, Henrik

AU - Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

N1 - Published online 6 Sep 2013

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Context:We develop a modelling concept that updates knowledge and beliefs about future climate changes, to model a decision-maker’s choice of forest management alternatives, the outcomes of which depend on the climate condition.Aims:Applying Bayes’ updating, we show that while the true climate trajectory is initially unknown, it will eventually be revealed as novel information become available. How fast the decision-maker will form firm beliefs about future climate depends on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term speed of change, and the short-term climate variability.Methods:We simplify climate change outcomes to three possible trajectories of low, medium and high changes. We solve a hypothetical decision-making problem of tree species choice aiming at maximising the land expectation value (LEV) and based on the updated beliefs at each time step.Results:The economic value of an adaptive approach would be positive and higher than a non-adaptive approach if a large change in climate state occurs and may influence forest decisions.Conclusion:Updating knowledge to handle climate change uncertainty is a valuable addition to the study of adaptive forest management in general and the analysis of forest decision-making, in particular for irreversible or costly decisions of long-term impact.

AB - Context:We develop a modelling concept that updates knowledge and beliefs about future climate changes, to model a decision-maker’s choice of forest management alternatives, the outcomes of which depend on the climate condition.Aims:Applying Bayes’ updating, we show that while the true climate trajectory is initially unknown, it will eventually be revealed as novel information become available. How fast the decision-maker will form firm beliefs about future climate depends on the divergence among climate trajectories, the long-term speed of change, and the short-term climate variability.Methods:We simplify climate change outcomes to three possible trajectories of low, medium and high changes. We solve a hypothetical decision-making problem of tree species choice aiming at maximising the land expectation value (LEV) and based on the updated beliefs at each time step.Results:The economic value of an adaptive approach would be positive and higher than a non-adaptive approach if a large change in climate state occurs and may influence forest decisions.Conclusion:Updating knowledge to handle climate change uncertainty is a valuable addition to the study of adaptive forest management in general and the analysis of forest decision-making, in particular for irreversible or costly decisions of long-term impact.

U2 - 10.1007/s13595-013-0320-x

DO - 10.1007/s13595-013-0320-x

M3 - Journal article

VL - 71

SP - 301

EP - 312

JO - Annals of Forest Science

JF - Annals of Forest Science

SN - 1286-4560

IS - 2

ER -