Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions

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Standard

Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions. / Halasa, T.; Willeberg, P.; Christiansen, L. E.; Boklund, A.; AlKhamis, M.; Perez, A.; Enøe, C.

I: Preventive Veterinary Medicine, Bind 112, Nr. 3-4, 01.11.2013, s. 194-202.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Harvard

Halasa, T, Willeberg, P, Christiansen, LE, Boklund, A, AlKhamis, M, Perez, A & Enøe, C 2013, 'Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions', Preventive Veterinary Medicine, bind 112, nr. 3-4, s. 194-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.003

APA

Halasa, T., Willeberg, P., Christiansen, L. E., Boklund, A., AlKhamis, M., Perez, A., & Enøe, C. (2013). Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 112(3-4), 194-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.003

Vancouver

Halasa T, Willeberg P, Christiansen LE, Boklund A, AlKhamis M, Perez A o.a. Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2013 nov 1;112(3-4):194-202. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.003

Author

Halasa, T. ; Willeberg, P. ; Christiansen, L. E. ; Boklund, A. ; AlKhamis, M. ; Perez, A. ; Enøe, C. / Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions. I: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2013 ; Bind 112, Nr. 3-4. s. 194-202.

Bibtex

@article{5f6306854b164ab4a5834594be1642cb,
title = "Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions",
abstract = "The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread - DADS) adapted to model the spread of FMD in Denmark. The European Union (EU) and Danish regulations for FMD control were used in the simulation. The correlations between FFO and FFS and the additional number of affected herds after day 14 following detection of the first infected herd were 0.66 and 0.82, respectively. The variation explained by the FFO at day 14 following detection was high (P-value. <. 0.001). This indicates that the FFO may take a part in the decision of whether or not to intensify FMD control, for instance by introducing emergency vaccination and/or pre-emptive depopulation, which might prevent a {"}catastrophic situation{"}. A significant part of the variation was explained by supplementing the model with the FFS (P-value. <. 0.001). Furthermore, the type of the index-herd was also a significant predictor of the epidemic outcomes (P-value. <. 0.05). The results of the current study suggest that national veterinary authorities should consider to model their national situation and to use FFO and FFS to help planning and updating their contingency plans and FMD emergency control strategies.",
keywords = "Control, Decision tool, Foot and mouth disease",
author = "T. Halasa and P. Willeberg and Christiansen, {L. E.} and A. Boklund and M. AlKhamis and A. Perez and C. En{\o}e",
year = "2013",
month = "11",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.003",
language = "English",
volume = "112",
pages = "194--202",
journal = "Preventive Veterinary Medicine",
issn = "0167-5877",
publisher = "Elsevier",
number = "3-4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Decisions on control of foot-and-mouth disease informed using model predictions

AU - Halasa, T.

AU - Willeberg, P.

AU - Christiansen, L. E.

AU - Boklund, A.

AU - AlKhamis, M.

AU - Perez, A.

AU - Enøe, C.

PY - 2013/11/1

Y1 - 2013/11/1

N2 - The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread - DADS) adapted to model the spread of FMD in Denmark. The European Union (EU) and Danish regulations for FMD control were used in the simulation. The correlations between FFO and FFS and the additional number of affected herds after day 14 following detection of the first infected herd were 0.66 and 0.82, respectively. The variation explained by the FFO at day 14 following detection was high (P-value. <. 0.001). This indicates that the FFO may take a part in the decision of whether or not to intensify FMD control, for instance by introducing emergency vaccination and/or pre-emptive depopulation, which might prevent a "catastrophic situation". A significant part of the variation was explained by supplementing the model with the FFS (P-value. <. 0.001). Furthermore, the type of the index-herd was also a significant predictor of the epidemic outcomes (P-value. <. 0.05). The results of the current study suggest that national veterinary authorities should consider to model their national situation and to use FFO and FFS to help planning and updating their contingency plans and FMD emergency control strategies.

AB - The decision on whether or not to change the control strategy, such as introducing emergency vaccination, is perhaps one of the most difficult decisions faced by the veterinary authorities during a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic. A simple tool that may predict the epidemic outcome and consequences would be useful to assist the veterinary authorities in the decision-making process. A previously proposed simple quantitative tool based on the first 14 days outbreaks (FFO) of FMD was used with results from an FMD simulation exercise. Epidemic outcomes included the number of affected herds, epidemic duration, geographical size and costs. The first 14 days spatial spread (FFS) was also included to further support the prediction. The epidemic data was obtained from a Danish version (DTU-DADS) of a pre-existing FMD simulation model (Davis Animal Disease Spread - DADS) adapted to model the spread of FMD in Denmark. The European Union (EU) and Danish regulations for FMD control were used in the simulation. The correlations between FFO and FFS and the additional number of affected herds after day 14 following detection of the first infected herd were 0.66 and 0.82, respectively. The variation explained by the FFO at day 14 following detection was high (P-value. <. 0.001). This indicates that the FFO may take a part in the decision of whether or not to intensify FMD control, for instance by introducing emergency vaccination and/or pre-emptive depopulation, which might prevent a "catastrophic situation". A significant part of the variation was explained by supplementing the model with the FFS (P-value. <. 0.001). Furthermore, the type of the index-herd was also a significant predictor of the epidemic outcomes (P-value. <. 0.05). The results of the current study suggest that national veterinary authorities should consider to model their national situation and to use FFO and FFS to help planning and updating their contingency plans and FMD emergency control strategies.

KW - Control

KW - Decision tool

KW - Foot and mouth disease

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84886787783&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.003

DO - 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.09.003

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 24080392

AN - SCOPUS:84886787783

VL - 112

SP - 194

EP - 202

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

SN - 0167-5877

IS - 3-4

ER -

ID: 203328563