We investigated risks and hazard rates of developing chronic ocular graft-versus-host disease (oGVHD) in a large nationwide, single centre study by using the criteria proposed by “The International Chronic oGVHD Consensus Group”. This retrospective study included 1407 consecutive adults who underwent allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Patients were examined by an ophthalmologist according to the hospital’s guidelines: baseline examination before HSCT, annually up to 5 years after HSCT. The 186 (13%) had dry eye disease before HSCT. The 5-year cumulative incidence of oGVHD was 18% (95% CI: 15–21) after myeloablative (MA) and 35% (95% CI: 30–39) after non-myeloablative conditioning (NMA). Factors associated with the rate of oGVHD were assessed separately according to conditioning regimen by using multiple Cox regression analyses. Factors that increased the rate in the MA group: Malignant disease, Schirmer’s test≤10 mm/5 min before transplantation, use of female donor, matched unrelated donor, peripheral blood as stem cell source, and grade III-IV acute GVHD. Factors that increased the rate in the NMA group: Schirmer’s test≤10 mm/5 min before transplantation and higher recipient age. We recommend a baseline ophthalmological examination before HSCT since many of the patients have signs of dry eyes before transplantation which increased the risk and rate of developing oGVHD.