Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults
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Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults. / Thinggaard, Mikael; McGue, Matt; Jeune, Bernard; Osler, Merete; Vaupel, James W; Christensen, Kaare.
I: Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, Bind 64, Nr. 1, 01.2016, s. 81-8.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Survival Prognosis in Very Old Adults
AU - Thinggaard, Mikael
AU - McGue, Matt
AU - Jeune, Bernard
AU - Osler, Merete
AU - Vaupel, James W
AU - Christensen, Kaare
N1 - © 2016, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2016, The American Geriatrics Society.
PY - 2016/1
Y1 - 2016/1
N2 - OBJECTIVES: To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.DESIGN: In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.SETTING: Denmark.PARTICIPANTS: All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy.MEASUREMENTS: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.RESULTS: Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.CONCLUSION: Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.
AB - OBJECTIVES: To determine whether simple functional indicators are predictors of survival prognosis in very old adults.DESIGN: In-person survey conducted over a 3-month period in 1998; assessment of survival over a 15-year follow-up period.SETTING: Denmark.PARTICIPANTS: All 3,600 Danes born in 1905 and living in Denmark in 1998, were invited to participate regardless of residence and health; 2,262 (63%) participated in the survey: 1,814 (80.2%) in person and 448 (19.8%) through a proxy.MEASUREMENTS: Socioeconomic factors, medications and diseases, activities of daily living, physical performance, cognition, depression symptomatology, self-rated health, and all-cause mortality, evaluated as average remaining lifespan and chance of surviving to 100 years.RESULTS: Men aged 92 to 93 had an overall 6.0% chance of surviving to 100 years, whereas the chance for women was 11.4%. Being able to rise without use of hands increased the chance for men to 11.2% (95% confidence interval (CI)=7.7-14.7) and for women to 22.0% (95% CI=18.9-25.1). When combining this with a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores from 28 to 30, the chances were 21.7% (95% CI=11.5-31.9) for men and 34.2% (95% CI=24.8-43.5) for women.CONCLUSION: Chair stand score combined with MMSE score is a quick and easy way to estimate overall chance of survival in very old adults, which is particularly relevant when treatment with potential side effects for nonacute diseases is considered.
KW - Activities of Daily Living
KW - Aged, 80 and over
KW - Cognition
KW - Denmark
KW - Female
KW - Forecasting
KW - Geriatric Assessment
KW - Humans
KW - Male
KW - Prognosis
KW - Retrospective Studies
KW - Survival Analysis
KW - Survival Rate
KW - Journal Article
KW - Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
KW - Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
U2 - 10.1111/jgs.13838
DO - 10.1111/jgs.13838
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 26782855
VL - 64
SP - 81
EP - 88
JO - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
JF - Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
SN - 0002-8614
IS - 1
ER -
ID: 167754825