OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that moderately elevated plasma creatinine levels and decreased levels of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, and early death in the general population.

METHODS: We studied 10,489 individuals with a plasma creatinine measurement and calculated eGFR from the Danish general population, of which 1498 developed myocardial infarction, 3001 ischemic heart disease, and 7573 died during 32 years follow-up.

RESULTS: Cumulative incidences of myocardial infarction and ischemic heart disease as a function of age increased with increasing levels of creatinine, and survival decreased (log-rank trends: <0.001). The median survival age was 78.7 (95%CI: 78.0-79.2) years for persons with creatinine levels <90th percentile, 78.1 (76.3-79.5) years for 90th-94th percentiles, and 74.8 (72.8-76.7) years for ≥95th percentile. Hazard ratios for myocardial infarction and plasma creatinine levels of 90th-94th percentiles and ≥95th percentile versus <50th percentile were 2.06 (95%CI: 1.67-2.56) and 1.90 (1.56-2.31) adjusted for gender and age, and 1.35 (1.09-1.68) and 1.11 (0.90-1.36) adjusted multifactorially, respectively. Corresponding estimates for creatinine and ischemic heart disease were 1.57 (1.33-1.85) and 1.64 (1.42-1.89) adjusted for gender and age, and 1.16 (0.98-1.37) and 1.11 (0.95-1.29) adjusted multifactorially. Finally, corresponding values for early death were 1.18 (1.06-1.32) and 1.43 (1.30-1.57), and 0.97 (0.87-1.09) and 1.13 (1.02-1.24), respectively. Low eGFR did not associate consistently with increased risk of these endpoints.

CONCLUSION: In the general population, moderately elevated plasma creatinine was associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, and early death, while low eGFR was not.