METHOD: Two thousand and fifty-nine healthy individuals aged 41, 51, 61 and 71 years examined in 1993, were divided in age, SCORE and Framingham risk score (FRS) groups. Subclinical vascular damage (SVD) was defined as carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (cfPWV) at least 12 m/s, carotid atherosclerotic plaques or albuminuria defined as urine albumin/creatinine ratio at least 90th percentile of 0.73/1.06 mg/mmol men/women. In 2006, the composite endpoint (CEP) of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke and hospitalization for ischemic heart disease was recorded (n = 229).

RESULTS: With increasing age, SCORE or FRS risk group, prevalence of cfPWV at least 12 m/s (5.2, 14.5, 35.3, 53.5% or 4.4, 15.6, 50.9, 66.1% or 4.0, 9.5, 32.1, 56.1%), atherosclerotic plaque (4.0, 19.0, 35.3, 53.5% or 3.5, 16.8, 43.7, 55.9%, or 6.6, 7.6, 9.8, 20.0%) and albuminuria (7.9, 8.7, 11.4, 20.6% or 7.9, 8.2, 16.6, 19.5% or 6.6, 7.6, 9.8, 20.0%) increased, all P < 0.001.CEP was associated with albuminuria in individuals aged 61 or 71 years, with moderate or very high SCORE or intermediate or high FRS (all P < 0.05), with atherosclerotic plaques in individuals aged 41, 51 or 61 years, with moderate SCORE or with high-intermediate or high FRS (all P < 0.01), and with cfPWV at least 12 m/s in individuals aged 51 years (P < 0.001) or high FRS (P < 0.05). Presence of at least one SVD was significantly associated with an increased risk in individuals aged 51 [hazard ratio 2.7 (1.6-4.8)] and 61 years [hazard ratio 2.7 (1.5-4.7)], moderate [hazard ratio 2.4 (1.6-3.7)] or high SCORE risk group [hazard ratio 2.3 (1.2-4.7)] and low-intermediate [hazard ratio 3.3 (1.5-7.0)], high-intermediate [hazard ratio 2.3 (1.5-3.5)] and high FRS risk group [hazard ratio 2.0 (1.4-3.0)].

CONCLUSION: SVD and especially atherosclerotic plaques or urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) at least 0.73/1.06 mg/mmol (men/women) added prognostic information in individuals aged 51 or 61 years or with moderate or intermediate risk.